Big Picture: Border-Gavaskar Trophy on the line

This is big. If India win at the MCG, they retain the Border-Gavaskar Trophy. If Australia win, they remain on track for a first series win over India in a decade. A defeat for the home side would trigger significant questions while if India lose, their World Test Championship (WTC) fate is out of their hands, although retaining the series trophy would remain possible. With a good forecast, a draw would appear an unlikely result, particularly given the ground's recent history. And whatever unfolds on Boxing Day could take place in front of more than 90,000 spectators.

It's only been six days since the damp end to proceedings at the Gabba, but a lot has happened. If you weren't aware of the scoreline, it may feel like India are ahead given Australia have been forced into a change at the top of the order to try and counterpunch against Jasprit Bumrah. It means 19-year-old Sam Konstas will make an extraordinary debut after just 11 first-class matches.

But it's also been a curious few days for the visitors. Virat Kohli had a run-in with a reporter at the Melbourne airport; Ravindra Jadeja only took questions in Hindi at a press conference which got some people annoyed; and there were suggestions of a conspiracy when India were given used pitches to train on at the MCG.

Meanwhile, in terms of the important things, they are still trying to find enough support for Bumrah and more runs from a misfiring top order. There does not appear much India can do about the batting order in terms of personnel, instead they will hope someone can follow the lead of KL Rahul.

There has not been a lot of actual cricket played in the last two Tests: Adelaide was over little more than an hour into the third day and rain was a constant menace in Brisbane. But since Perth, Australia have dominated. Yet it sits at 1-1 and there is not much wriggle room for them to have a bad day.

Australia's top order remains under scrutiny amid the call to drop Nathan McSweeney in favour of Konstas at such a crucial moment in the series while senior batters Usman Khawaja and Marnus Labuschagne remain low on runs. Travis Head, who picked up a quad niggle in Brisbane but is good to go, has been the game-changer while Steven Smith's hundred was timely and by the end of it he was playing very fluently.

The fact that Scott Boland can slot back in at a ground he has enjoyed so much success on (headlined by his 6 for 7 against England in 2021-22) shows the pace-bowling depth Australia have. It may just be what makes the difference, although don't count out Bumrah being able to win it almost on his own for India, who have not lost a Test at the MCG since 2011.

Form guide

(last five completed matches, most recent first)
Australia DWLWW
India DLWLL

In the spotlight: Usman Khawaja and Virat Kohli

Usman Khawaja is coming towards the end of what is his leanest Test year since 2013 (when he averaged 19.00 from just three matches). In 2024 he has a return of 337 runs at 24.07 including just one fifty. However, the Australia camp is taking the view that he is out of runs rather than out of form, similar to Smith before his Gabba century. Khawaja has spoken about having next year's Ashes on his radar with a potential finishing point of the SCG in just over 12 months' time, but whether he gets there may depend on these next two Tests and the Sri Lanka series.

There has been one India great retire in this series. And the rumours are bubbling about who might be next. Virat Kohli ended a century drought with his second innings in Perth but at the moment it is looking like an outlier with a pattern in his dismissals aside from that - pushing hard at the ball outside off stump. In Brisbane he was reaching out to drive a particularly wide delivery. In 2014 he enjoyed a spectacular Test at the MCG with 169 and 54, then in 2018 made a hardworking 82 as captain to help lay the foundation for a famous victory which ultimately decided that series. He missed 2020 when India won again. What will 2024 bring?

Team news: Konstas debut, Boland back; India's balance question

Konstas' debut was confirmed on Christmas Eve while Boland will return in place of the injured Josh Hazlewood. Head passed a fitness test on Christmas Day after coming out of the Gabba with a quad strain.

Australia: 1 Usman Khawaja, 2 Sam Konstas, 3 Marnus Labuschagne, 4 Steven Smith, 5 Travis Head, 6 Mitchell Marsh, 7 Alex Carey (wk), 8 Pat Cummins (capt), 9 Mitchell Starc, 10 Nathan Lyon, 11 Scott Boland

Rohit Sharma's batting position remains a hot topic and he did not confirm where he would slot in ahead of the game, but it seems unlikely India will break up the opening pair. The other key debate is what to do at No. 8: stick with Nitesh Kumar Reddy, pick another specialist quick (which would lengthen the tail) or play Washington Sundar as an alternative allrounder and opt for a 3-2 balance of pace and spin?

India (possible): 1 Yashasvi Jaiswal, 2 KL Rahul, 3 Shubman Gill, 4 Virat Kohli, 5 Rishabh Pant (wk), 6 Rohit Sharma (capt), 7 Ravindra Jadeja, 8 Nitesh Kumar Reddy/Washington Sundar, 9 Akash Deep, 10 Jasprit Bumrah, 11 Mohammed Siraj

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Pitch and conditions: Sizzling temperatures on Boxing Day

The MCG pitch, which has become a goldmine for the quicks, has been in focus. Curator Matt Page said he will follow the formula which has been a success in recent seasons, leaving around 6mm of grass on the surface. Australia coach Andrew McDonald said it's normally a surface where you bowl first, but things may be different this time. The forecast for a hot opening day, where temperatures could reach 40 degrees Celsius, may see the pitch quicken up earlier than normal. There is a chance of showers on the second day but otherwise the forecast is fine and a more pleasant temperature from day three onwards.

Stats and trivia

• Bumrah needs six wickets for 200 in Tests. If he did it at the MCG, in his 44th Test, he would be the joint second-fastest for India behind R Ashwin

• Since the 2018-19 season, there have been six Test centuries scored at the MCG - the lowest of all Australian venues to host more than a single match

• Australia's current average from their top three is their lowest ever for a home series of at least three Tests (note: includes Pat Cummins as nightwatcher in Perth)

Quotes

"Every game starts afresh…different teams, different structures. Think both teams have similar challenges at the moment. How do you find runs? Both bowling attacks have been on top. I'm not a big believer in history repeating itself.
Australia head coach Andrew McDonald wasn't reading much into past Boxing Day results

"After three Test matches, if I had to look at it being one-all, it's a fair reflection of how both teams have played. There has been solid cricket being played by both teams."
Rohit Sharma on the state of the series