Big Picture
What else could possibly go wrong for South Africa? A month ago, they were hiking up Table Mountain together as part of their pre-tournament team building, the sun on their backs in one of the most beautiful corners of the world, the World Cup a glittering dream ahead of them. Full of excitement and potential.
The reality has been somewhat more harsh and the pointy end of the tournament has come right at the beginning for them. Losing three matches in a row is bad enough, but they've also said a tearful goodbye to Dale Steyn, and seen Lungi Ngidi sidelined by injury. They are dealing with the disruptive complexities of AB de Villiers' 11th hour comeback attempt, in the full glare of the public, in the middle of a World Cup. And now a team that hates must-win knockout games has, essentially, six of them in a row. It's a perfect storm.
West Indies, meanwhile, are not fussed. You might even say they were a little too blasé in their efforts after they let Australia off the hook at Trent Bridge. But they at least have points on the board, and a healthy dollop of confidence, after the demolition of Pakistan that kick-started their campaign. The biggest story out of their camp in the last week - apart from the absorbing theatre of Chris Gayle's battle against Starc, Gaffaney and the DRS - has been their opening bowler's salute celebration going viral IRL. What fun! The most chilled-out team at this tournament is about to meet a side that would be forgiven for freaking out right about now, and whatever the result, this contest is likely to make for compelling viewing.
"Score more runs," was the succinctly obvious remedy offered by Chris Morris after the defeat to India on Wednesday, and South Africa have indeed been let down by their batting in all three games so far. That much is suggested by the fact that Kagiso Rabada currently tops their tournament batting averages, and it's in the middle order that de Villiers was attempting to waltz back into that South Africa have the most room for improvement.
JP Duminy has failed two times out of three, while David Miller keeps getting himself in and then immediately getting out. A turnaround for Duminy would be particularly timeous as he is in the last stretch as an ODI cricketer and will retire from the format after this tournament.
West Indies have a few vulnerabilities of their own. They have been two down inside the Powerplay in both their innings so far, and against Australia their early blitz with the ball was let down by missed chances in the field and, later on, soft dismissals with the bat.
The situation for South Africa is precarious. Victory against one of cricket's most slippery teams is an absolute necessity if their campaign is not to go up in flames. West Indies' biggest challenge could be to overcome their own inconsistencies.
Form guide
South Africa: LLLWW (Last five completed matches, most recent first)
West Indies: LWLLW
In the spotlight
Imran Tahir is South Africa's second-highest wicket-taker in World Cups, but after striking dramatically with the second ball of the tournament, his trip to England hasn't been particularly successful. He has only taken three more wickets across three innings subsequently, and his average (44) and economy rate (5.86) are comfortably his worst at any World Cup. South Africa desperately need a turnaround, and it could start with Tahir, who has enjoyed himself against West Indies in the past. He made his ODI debut against them at the Feroz Shah Kotla at the 2011 World Cup, claiming 4 for 41 in that game, and has continued in much the same vein in subsequent battles. He has now taken 26 wickets against West Indies in eight matches, while his average of 12.69 against them is his best against a top 10 ranked team in ODIs.
The loss of early wickets hasn't hurt West Indies irreparably just yet, but being one or two down early could send their campaign skittering off the rails later on down the line. They've tried two different opening pairings in two games, thanks to Evin Lewis' hand injury, but does it really matter who is at the other end when Chris Gayle is batting? There will be no Steyn to trouble him with the new ball, and if Gayle can survive Kagiso Rabada's early onslaught he could be very hard to rein in. "Chris is Chris, he will know what he needs to do," said assistant coach Roddy Estwick on the eve of the match. If he does what he needs to, all else will follow much more easily for West Indies.
Team news
There are a few different ways South Africa might look to re-shuffle their playing XI, and they will have to decide whether to play an extra batsman, an allrounder, a fresh seamer, or a second spinner. Tabraiz Shamsi went wicketless against India, while Dwaine Pretorius might find it hard to get into the side ahead of either Andile Phehlukwayo or Morris. Aiden Markram, who also offers a little with the ball, could slot back into the top three, and the decision could come down to whether South Africa believe Markram will score more runs than a specialist bowler - Beuran Hendricks - would save with the ball.
South Africa (probable): 1 Quinton de Kock (wk), 2 Hashim Amla, 3 Faf du Plessis (capt), 4 Rassie van der Dussen, 5 David Miller, 6 JP Duminy, 7 Andile Phehlukwayo, 8 Chris Morris, 9 Kagiso Rabada, 10 Beuran Hendricks, 11 Imran Tahir
Andre Russell didn't train the day before the match, but the team management insisted he was fit and would be available to play against South Africa. If Russell is fit, there seems little reason for West Indies to tinker too much.
West Indies (probable): 1 Chris Gayle, 2 Evin Lewis, 3 Shai Hope (wk), 4 Nicholas Pooran, 5 Shimron Hetmyer, 6 Jason Holder (capt), 7 Andre Russell, 8 Carlos Brathwaite, 9 Ashley Nurse, 10 Sheldon Cottrell, 11 Oshane Thomas
Pitch and conditions
The pitch is expected to be a belter - something more akin to the track upon which England and Pakistan scored 734 runs a month ago , rather than the one South Africa and India scrapped 457 runs on last Wednesday. There are, however, showers anticipated, so it could be an on-off sort of day in Southampton.
Strategy punts
Legspin is West Indies' kryptonite. Five of the West Indies top eight average under 25 against legspin and Tahir might be most effectively deployed as a counter-measure to the big hitters in their lower middle order. Andre Russell has been dismissed twice in the 11 balls he has faced from Tahir in ODIs, while Carlos Brathwaite has also been out twice in the space of 17 deliveries he's faced from him. Neither has managed a boundary off Tahir in this format.
Perhaps an unhappy South African top order needs a reshuffle? An underperforming JP Duminy could move up to No. 4, the position at which he has scored two of his four hundreds and averages 46.7 across 33 innings. This would mean Miller slipping down to No. 6 - a position where he has much better numbers than Duminy, generally scoring much more quickly, especially at the start of his innings. Another option might be to shunt Markram up to open the innings, a position in which he averages 40.8, with Amla coming in at No. 3. That would also allow Amla to escape the ravages of the new ball, against which he has struggled in 2019.
Stats and trivia
No West the Indies batsman has made an ODI hundred at this ground, but Gayle came mighty close, scoring 99 against Bangladesh during the Champions Trophy almost 15 years ago.
Not since 2003 have West Indies beaten South Africa in a World Cup match.
Chris Gayle needs 15 runs to reach 1,000 against South Africa in ODIs
South Africa and West Indies have played only three ODIs against each other since the last World Cup.
Quotes
"Andre will be fine… he is a warrior, he is a soldier, he is a strong man mentally and he has been for us - we didn't expect him to bowl as much as he is doing."
Andre Russell's galvanizing, match-turning efforts with the ball (on a gammy knee, no less) have been appreciated by assistant West Indies coach Roddy Estwick
"Unfortunately we've had quite a few problems in this tournament regarding injury. We have to deal with what we have. There's no point in complaining about it."
Kagiso Rabada is choosing pragmatism over despair despite South Africa's precarious position in the World Cup
