Big Picture: Two teams on a high face off
The 2019 World Cup champions have been taken down. Time for the runners-up next?
Afghanistan players have time and again called India their second home. At various points, they have had their base set up at Indian venues like Dehradun, Lucknow and Greater Noida, where they played their "home games". IPL regulars Rashid Khan and Mohammad Nabi have always been a crowd favourite, while Naveen-ul-Haq keeps the buzz going.
Which is why there was genuine excitement among the Delhi crowd when Afghanistan served defending champions England a 69-run thrashing on Sunday. It was only Afghanistan's second-ever win in an ODI World Cup game in 18 attempts and their first since 2015.
However, even with the confidence of a big win under their belt, Afghanistan know they have their work cut out as they run into red-hot New Zealand in Chennai. Unbeaten so far in the tournament - three wins out of three - New Zealand seem to have all the pieces of the puzzle in place. But the Chennai surface could prove to be a potential banana peel against the spin trio of Rashid, Mujeeb Ur Rahman and Nabi. The three spinners lead the wicket-taking list for Afghanistan in the World Cup so far and will hope for more success on a pitch which is expected to turn.
Afghanistan's biggest issue remains their over-reliance on the top three of Rahmanullah Gurbaz, Ibrahim Zadran and Rahmat Shah. In ODIs since the start of 2021, the trio has accounted for 52.79% of the total runs that Afghanistan have scored. Among all Full Members nations, their middle order (Nos. 4 to 7) has the lowest average: 26.00.
This was on display in the game against England as well where Afghanistan collapsed from 114 for 0 to 190 for 6 before the lower order bailed them out. The likes of Hashmatullah Shahidi, Azmatullah Omarzai and Nabi will need to step up and quick.
New Zealand have far fewer problems. They come into this game on a five-match winning streak, having won each of these games rather convincingly. Their top order has fired in every game while the bowling unit looks well-rounded. Of course, Kane Williamson's "undisplaced fracture" to his left thumb might be a cause for concern for them, especially given the nature of this Chennai pitch, but Tom Latham has proven to be an effective leader in his absence.
New Zealand might be on a high, but they can't afford to be complacent against a side that seems to have finally found its mojo.
McClenaghan on what NZ's options are with Williamson out, and how the bowlers can get the most out of the Chennai pitch
Form guide: New Zealand on a roll
Afghanistan WLLLL (last five completed matches, most recent first)
New Zealand WWWWW
In the spotlight: Mitchell Santner and Mujeeb Ur Rahman
Mitchell Santner has turned his 2023 upside down and how! Coming into the World Cup, Santner had only four wickets in seven ODIs at an average of 80.25 and economy of 5.24 in 2023. Three matches into the tournament, he has already doubled that tally and is currently the joint-leading wicket-taker alongside Jasprit Bumrah and Matt Henry with eight scalps at 15.87. He's been excellent with his pace variations and has tied the batters down in the powerplay. Chepauk is like home away from home for Santner. He has been with the Chennai Super Kings squad in the IPL since 2019 and will want to put up another solid show on "home" territory.
Mujeeb Ur Rahman did not start off the World Cup the way he wanted but did a star turn against England first with the bat and then picking up 3 for 51 to take home the Player of the Match award. He's been Afghanistan's joint-leading wicket-taker in ODIs this year and, having found his groove, will want to inflict more damage against New Zealand come Wednesday.
Team news: Who comes in for Williamson?
With Williamson out injured for a while, Will Young is the likely candidate to take his place in the New Zealand XI. He is likely to slot back into the opening position, with Rachin Ravindra expected to move to the No. 3 spot. Tom Latham will lead the side once more.
New Zealand (probable): 1 Devon Conway, 2 Will Young, 3 Rachin Ravindra, 4 Tom Latham (capt, wk), 5 Daryl Mitchell, 6 Glenn Phillips, 7 Mark Chapman, 8 Mitchell Santner, 9 Matt Henry, 10 Lockie Ferguson, 11 Trent Boult
Afghanistan are unlikely to make any changes to the playing XI that beat England convincingly.
Afghanistan (probable): 1 Rahmanullah Gurbaz, 2 Ibrahim Zadran, 3 Rahmat Shah, 4 Hashmatullah Shahidi (capt), 5 Azmatullah Omarzai, 6 Mohammad Nabi, 7 Ikram Alikhil (wk), 8 Rashid Khan, 9 Mujeeb Ur Rahman, 10 Naveen-ul-Haq, 11 Fazalhaq Farooqi
Pitch and conditions: Turner in Chepauk?
The first game of the World Cup in Chennai, between India and Australia, was played on black-soil turner, but the second game had a lot in it for the fast bowlers. Historically, surfaces in Chennai have aided spin and that is likely to be the case on Wednesday as well.
There was a slight drizzle in Chennai on the eve of the game, but the forecast is clearer on match day.
Stats and trivia
Mitchell Santner is just one short of 100 wickets in ODIs, while Mujeeb Ur Rahman needs four wickets to reach the 100-mark in the format.
Rashid Khan has gone wicketless just three times in ODIs in India and has picked up two or more wickets in an innings seven times in 15 innings.
Rahmanullah Gurbaz has fallen to left-arm orthodox spinners in four out of seven innings and averages just 20 against them.
Ibrahim Zadran is just 17 short of 1000 runs in ODIs. If he gets there on Wednesday, he will be the quickest Afghanistan batter to the landmark in the format.
Quotes
"See Rahmanullah [Gurbaz] is one of the players in our team who is I believe a match-winner player. He can change the game anytime."
Captain Hashmatullah Shahidi exudes confidence in his opener
