Big Picture
It's not panic stations yet, but Delhi Capitals wouldn't want a third straight defeat to begin IPL 2023.
A batting line-up sans Rishabh Pant, their talismanic leader, has looked wonky with the engine room of David Warner and Prithvi Shaw yet to click into gear.
The middle-order batters were undone by raw pace of Alzarri Joseph and the relentlessness of Mohammed Shami in Capitals' previous game against Gujarat Titans, and will have to find a way out of their mire quickly. They couldn't have asked for a better surface than Guwahati to rediscover their touch.
The Royals have been firing away with the bat, and came within touching distance of their second straight win on Wednesday, but have a few combination questions to ponder.
Can they revisit Shimron Hetmyer's entry point? He only came in to bat at No. 7 against Punjab Kings, with Royals needing 77 off 35 balls. He nearly got them home, blasting three sixes in an 18-ball 36.
Will they need to rethink Devdutt Padikkal's role? He seems a misfit at No. 4, which perhaps means they could either have him bat higher or leave him out for Dhruv Jurel or another pure batter.
If they move him up to open the batting, it would mean a rejig of their entire batting order. This means Yashasvi Jaiswal, who has struck all the right notes as an opener, drops down to No. 3, and Sanju Samson to No. 4.
Only time will tell if they want to go down that route yet. It's unlikely they'd make such wholesale changes just two games in. Yet it's something for them to keep an eye out for before the points-table jostling becomes real.
Team news
There remains an inkling of doubt over Jos Butter's participation. He jarred his little finger into the turf while taking a catch in the match against Punjab, and didn't open the batting. Samson, the Royals captain, didn't seem too concerned by the injury in the post-match press conference. However, if the Royals want to tread cautiously, there's a ready replacement in Joe Root or the South African allrounder Donovan Ferreira, who caught the eye of talent scouts during his stint with Jo'burg Super Kings at the SA20.
Capitals will be without Mitchell Marsh, who has flown home to Perth for his wedding, and will rejoin the squad next week.
Toss and Impact Player Strategy
Dhruv Jurel came in as Impact Player in Royals' previous game and made a case to be a finisher with an unbeaten 15-ball 32 that took Royals to within a blow of victory.
If Royals bat first, there is a compelling case to play Jurel as an extra batter, and potentially sub out one of Yashasvi Jaiswal or Devdutt Padikkal for KM Asif when they bowl. This will potentially give them batting firepower all the way up to No. 9.
Probable bat-first XI: 1 Jos Buttler, 2 Yashasvi Jaiswal, 3 Sanju Samson (capt & wk), 4 Devdutt Padikkal, 5 Riyan Parag, 6 Shimron Hetmyer, 7 Dhruv Jurel, 8 Jason Holder, 9 R Ashwin, 10 Trent Boult, 11 Yuzvendra Chahal
Probable bowl-first XI: 1 Jos Buttler, 2 Yashasvi Jaiswal, 3 Sanju Samson (capt, wk), 4 Riyan Parag, 5 Dhruv Jurel, 6 Shimron Hetmyer, 7 Jason Holder, 8 R Ashwin, 9 KM Asif, 10 Trent Boult, 11 Yuzvendra Chahal.
Like in Capitals' previous game, it's likely Sarfaraz Khan and Khaleel Ahmed could be the Impact Subs.
Probable bat-first XI: 1 David Warner (capt), 2 Prithvi Shaw, 3 Sarfaraz Khan, 4 Rilee Rossouw, 5 Rovman Powell, 6 Axar Patel, 7 Aman Khan, 8 Abishek Porel (wk), 9 Kuldeep Yadav, 10 Anrich Nortje, 11 Mukesh Kumar
Probable bowl-first XI: 1 David Warner (capt), 2 Prithvi Shaw, 3 Rilee Rossouw, 4 Rovman Powell, 5 Axar Patel, 6 Aman Khan, 7 Abishek Porel (wk), 8 Kuldeep Yadav, 9 Khaleel Ahmed, 10 Anrich Nortje, 11 Mukesh Kumar
Stats that matter
On the nine occasions they've faced off against each other, Buttler has struck 72 runs off Anrich Nortje at a strike rate of 163.63, while being dismissed twice.
There is a case for the Royals to open the bowling with R Ashwin as he has the wood over Warner. He has dismissed him five times in T20s, the joint-most by any bowler alongside Kagiso Rabada, Shakib Al Hasan and Umesh Yadav.
Jason Holder's bowling strike rate of 13.8 is the second-best among bowlers who have picked up at least 20 wickets in the IPL since 2020.
Pitch and conditions
Unlike the other night in Guwahati's grand IPL opening, dew is unlikely to play a part since it is an afternoon start. Scoring patterns in T20s point to an average first innings score of 156 in T20s. Much of these have been played in the morning, when there's moisture to work with for the fast bowlers, or in the afternoon.
