Big picture: The thing with RCB...
Virat Kohli chose a good moment - their homecoming - to highlight that Royal Challengers Bangalore are part of IPL royalty. He said, outside of Chennai Super Kings (11) and Mumbai Indians (9), they are the team that has made it to the playoffs the most times (8).
But the wider IPL fraternity - and indeed some of Royal Challengers' fans - won't find any solace in that because of the ways in which the team's fortunes swing. They began this season by tapping Mumbai on the head and tossing them off to the side, but then they went to Kolkata and basically enabled a blasterclass from a No. 7 batter. They bowled length in the death with mid-off up. What was Shardul Thakur to do? Not score 68 off 29 balls which turned 89 for 5 to 204 for 7?
These reverses, which happen as a result of mostly avoidable mistakes, make the Royal Challengers a bit of a frustrating team to follow, let alone plan for, which is what Lucknow Super Giants have to do.
KL Rahul will be coming home to Bengaluru for the first time in four IPLs - and only the third time ever as an opposition player. He's yet to win a match as a visitor to the M Chinnaswamy Stadium, and in some ways, the chances of that happening may be tied to how well he manages his overseas resources, especially now that Quinton de Kock is available and Kyle Mayers is undroppable(ish).
Team news: Will de Kock and Hasaranga play?
Prior to the start of IPL 2023, Super Giants would've been fairly confident of their overseas combination. De Kock for firepower at the top. Nicholas Pooran and Marcus Stoinis for firepower at the death, and Mark Wood for firepower with the ball. But now that Mayers has casually thumped 139 runs in three innings at a higher strike rate (187.83) than any of the top 15 scorers in the tournament so far, there is a decision to be made. Avesh Khan is carrying an injury, and Wood missed the last game with flu.
Royal Challengers were expecting Wanindu Hasaranga to arrive on April 10 - which is match day - following the conclusion of a white-ball series in New Zealand, where he picked up figures of 11-0-93-2 in three T20Is. If he is ready to start, he might even be able to lessen the burden on their death bowers because his wickets in the middle overs could mean the seamers may be left dealing with lesser batters at the end of the innings. Josh Hazlewood faces a longer stretch on the sidelines, with the Australia quick likely to be available for the April 17 game against Super Kings. Wayne Parnell has replaced the injured Reece Topley.
Toss and Impact Player Strategy
Royal Challengers Bangalore
Royal Challengers are yet to bat first in IPL 2023, and should this be when it happens, they might consider bringing in Suyash Prabhudessai and swapping him out for Mohammed Siraj later in the game.
Probable bat-first XI: 1 Virat Kohli, 2 Faf du Plessis (capt), 3 Suyash Prabhudessai, 4 Glenn Maxwell, 5 Shahbaz Ahmed, 6 Dinesh Karthik (wk), 7 Wanindu Hasaranga/Michael Bracewell, 8 David Willey, 9 Harshal Patel, 10 Karn Sharma, 11 Akash Deep
Probable bowl-first XI: 1 Virat Kohli, 2 Faf du Plessis (capt), 3 Glenn Maxwell, 4 Shahbaz Ahmed, 5 Dinesh Karthik (wk), 6 Wanindu Hasaranga/Michael Bracewell, 7 David Willey, 8 Karn Sharma, 9 Akash Deep, 10 Harshal Patel, 11 Mohammed Siraj
Lucknow Super Giants
Ayush Badoni appears to have become a specialist Impact Player for Super Giants. He went out for K Gowtham in the first, came in for Avesh in the second, and went out for Amit Mishra in the third. The sequence is likely to continue.
Probable bat-first XI: 1 KL Rahul (capt), 2 Kyle Mayers, 3 Quinton de Kock (wk), 4 Deepak Hooda, 5 Krunal Pandya, 6 Nicholas Pooran, 7 Ayush Badoni, 8 Romario Shepherd/Mark Wood, 9 Yash Thakur, 10 Ravi Bishnoi, 11 Jaydev Unadkat
Probable bowl-first XI: 1 KL Rahul (capt), 2 Kyle Mayers, 3 Quinton de Kock (wk), 4 Deepak Hooda, 5 Krunal Pandya, 6 Nicholas Pooran, 7 Amit Mishra, 8 Romario Shepherd/Mark Wood, 9 Yash Thakur, 10 Ravi Bishnoi, 11 Jaydev Unadkat
Stats that matter: RCB death bowlers under pressure
Since IPL 2022, Royal Challengers have the worst economy rate (11) in the final five overs of the innings. This is primarily because the options they turn to at this stage of the game have not been able to execute their skills well enough. Siraj's economy rate of 13.4 is the worst among everyone who has bowled at least ten overs in the death since the last IPL. Even Harshal Patel, who will become the quickest Indian bowler to 100 IPL wickets if he picks up one more over the next two innings, has struggled with this task. He has conceded ten runs an over or more in seven of his last 10 T20s.
If he has recovered from his illness, Super Giants may want to keep Wood away from the new ball because Kohli has hit 46 against the England quick in just 19 balls in all T20 cricket. They have plenty of other favourable match-ups, though. Krunal Pandya (79 off 80 balls, one dismissal), Jaydev Unadkat (52 off 46) and Ravi Bishnoi (23 off 23 balls). Avesh has done the best against Kohli (5 runs off ten balls and two dismissals), but it's unclear if he'll be able to play on Monday.
Glenn Maxwell vs Amit Mishra will be fun. The Australian has smashed 66 runs in 35 balls in all T20s, but in the process, the Indian has picked up his wicket five times. Maxwell has also been susceptible to left-arm spin in the IPL: his average of 22.9 is the second-lowest for anyone who has faced at least 200 balls of this kind of bowling. Someone should pass Krunal the note.
There has been a noticeable shift in Faf du Plessis' batting in the powerplay this season. His strike rate of 158 from two matches is significantly higher than the 105 he managed all through 2022, when he was also dismissed in this phase of play seven times in 16 innings.
Pitch and conditions
The average first-innings IPL score in Bengaluru since 2018 is 183. In the same period, statistics suggest spinners have had a better time keeping the runs down here than the quicks (economy rate 8.1 vs 9.8). It remains the most sixer-friendly ground in the IPL, averaging 18 per match over the last five seasons.
