Big picture: Can LSG keep their cleansheet against Mumbai?
Of the four teams that made it to the playoffs, Lucknow Super Giants are the least glamorous and talked about. They obviously don't have the rich history of Chennai Super Kings and Mumbai Indians, but even Gujarat Titans get a lot more attention than them. LSG's highest run-scorer - Marcus Stoinis - is the 19th on the run charts this season, and their top bowler - Ravi Bishnoi - is 11th on the list of top wicket-takers. They don't have a future Indian superstar at the top, an experienced fast bowler, or a magician of a wristspinner.
That LSG qualified for the playoffs without their regular captain and star batter KL Rahul speaks volumes of Krunal Pandya's captaincy. Under his leadership, they won three of their last four completed games; those victories coming at the end of the league to qualify without much stress.
The one thing they do have in common with the Titans is a clean sheet against one of the IPL's most successful teams. Just like Titans had a 3-0 record against CSK before Qualifier 1, LSG have a 3-0 record against Mumbai, their opponents in the Eliminator. They played only once during the league stage this season, and LSG won that home game by five runs.
LSG have won by setting and chasing targets in recent games but they have depended on their overseas batters - Stoinis, Nicholas Pooran, Kyle Mayers and Quinton de Kock - for most of their runs. Apart from Rahul, their other Indian batters have scored only two half-centuries this season, compared to ten fifties from overseas.
Another area they would want to improve is their bowling in the powerplay. They've taken the fewest wickets in that phase, and conceded the most wicketless powerplays during the league stage. They've used a variety of bowlers with the new ball, and early wickets will be vital against Mumbai's power-packed and deep batting line-up.
Mumbai had a much rougher ride to the playoffs because of injuries to key players but they have once again benefitted from unearthing Indian talent: Nehal Wadhera has impressed with his striking ability, and Akash Madhwal is becoming their go-to death bowler. They squeaked through to the playoffs in fourth place by beating Sunrisers Hyderabad on the final day of the league, and then Titans did them a favour by knocking out RCB.
While Mumbai are the best chasing side this season, LSG are the best defenders of totals. Both will have to factor in the possibility of a slow pitch, and whether or not dew will play a part, when deciding what to do if they win the toss. There are no second chances in Chennai on Wednesday: the winner takes a step closer to the final, the loser gets eliminated.
Form guide
Mumbai Indians WLWWL (last five completed games, most recent first)
Lucknow Super Giants WWWLL
Team news: No injury issues
LSG don't have any known fitness issues. For Mumbai, Tilak Varma seems to be fit because he was on their list of Impact Player subs for their previous game and was padded up, but wasn't needed to bat.
Impact Player strategy
LSG will swap an opening batter, like Karan Sharma, with one of their frontline bowlers like Mohsin Khan or Yash Thakur.
Lucknow Super Giants (probable XII): 1 Quinton de Kock (wk), 2 Karan Sharma, 3 Krunal Pandya (capt), 4 Marcus Stoinis, 5 Nicholas Pooran, 6 Ayush Badoni, 7 Prerak Mankad, 8 K Gowtham, 9 Naveen-ul-Haq, 10 Ravi Bishnoi, 11 Mohsin Khan, 12 Yash Thakur
Mumbai will also use a similar strategy and sub out a bowler like Madhwal for Tilak if they bowl first, or vice versa if they bat first.
Mumbai Indians (probable XII): 1 Rohit Sharma (capt), 2 Ishan Kishan (wk), 3 Suryakumar Yadav, 4 Nehal Wadhera, 5 Tim David, 6 Tilak Varma, 7 Cameron Green, 8 Chris Jordan, 9 Hrithik Shokeen/Kumar Kartikeya, 10 Piyush Chawla, 11 Jason Behrendorff, 12 Akash Madhwal
Stats that matter: Can Suryakumar shine away from Wankhede?
All four of de Kock's dismissals have come against legspinners this season; Piyush Chawla dismissed him in the previous LSG-MI fixture. De Kock also doesn't have a great record against Chris Jordan in T20s: 59 runs off 41 balls with four dismissals.
Bishnoi has dismissed two of Mumbai's in-form batters three times each. While Ishan Kishan has scored at run a ball against Bishnoi (21 off 21), Suryakumar has done marginally better (29 off 25) against the legspinner.
There is a significant difference between Suryakumar's home and away performances this season. At the Wankhede, he has scored 367 runs while striking at 201.64, including a century and three half-centuries. But away from home, he has managed just 144 runs in seven innings while averaging 20.57.
Mumbai have reached the playoffs for the 10th time in 16 seasons; LSG have made it two in two.
Pitch and conditions
The Eliminator is likely to be played on the same pitch on which CSK beat Mumbai in a low-scoring contest. Chennai will again be warm and humid.
