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          Betting tips for Monday night's wild-card game: Vikings-Rams

          Sam Darnold and the Vikings head into Monday's matchup with the Rams as slight favorites. Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images
          • ESPN
          Jan 13, 2025, 10:00 AM ET

          The No. 5-seeded Minnesota Vikings (14-3, 12-5 ATS) will play the No. 4 Los Angeles Rams (10-7, 9-8 ATS) on Monday night to close out the NFL's wild-card weekend.

          The Vikings missed out on the top seed in the NFC and a first-round bye following their loss to the Detroit Lions in Week 18, while the Rams clinched a higher seed by virtue of winning the NFC West.

          Monday night's tilt (8 ET on ESPN/ABC/ESPN+) had to be moved as wildfires continue to ravage Southern California. The game was originally scheduled to take place at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, but it will now be played at the Cardinals' State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

          The line had moved to Vikings -1 (after opening at Vikings -2.5) before the game was moved, and it shifted back to Vikings -2.5 after the NFL announced the venue change.

          The Vikings (13-1 to win the Super Bowl, 6-1 to win the NFC) were riding a nine-game winning streak heading into their Week 18 matchup with the Lions. The Rams (35-1 to win the Super Bowl, 14-1 to win the NFC) had won five straight before dropping their regular-season finale to the Seattle Seahawks.

          Check out the lines, props, analysis, trends and our picks below to help with your betting considerations.

          Game lines

          Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET

          Spread: Vikings -2.5 (opened Vikings -2.5)
          Moneyline: Vikings -140, Rams +120
          Over/under: 47.5 (opened 42.5)

          First-half spread: Vikings -0.5 (-120), Rams +0.5 (-110)
          Vikings total points: 24.5 (over +100/under -130)
          Rams total points: 23.5 (over -105/under -125)

          Player props

          Passing

          Sam Darnold total passing yards: 274.5 (over -100/under -130)
          Darnold total passing TDs: 1.5 (over -190/under +145)
          Matthew Stafford total passing yards: 249.5 (over +115/under -145)
          Stafford total passing TDs: 1.5 (over -125/under -105)

          Rushing

          Kyren Williams total rushing yards: 79.5 (over -140/under +110)
          Aaron Jones total rushing yards: 59.5 (over +100/under -130)

          Receiving

          Puka Nacua total receiving yards: 89.5 (over -130/under +100)
          Justin Jefferson total receiving yards: 89.5 (over -125/under -105)
          Jordan Addison total receiving yards: 59.5 (over -115/under -115)
          Cooper Kupp total receiving yards: 49.5 (over -110/under -120)
          T.J. Hockenson total receiving yards: 44.5 (over -110/under -120)
          Aaron Jones total receiving yards: 19.5 (over -120/under -110)

          Props that pop

          Sam Darnold over 33.5 pass attempts (-125), over 0.5 INTs (-110)

          Liz Loza: With the game being moved to Arizona and a spread of 2.5 points, this figures to be a close back-and-forth with plenty of twists and turns. That also suggests a surplus of throws for Darnold, who ranks eighth at the position in pass attempts and has registered at least 35 pass attempts in four straight games.

          While the Rams' secondary can be had, the team's young pass rush has developed over the course of 2024 (Rams rookies had the most sacks in the NFL this season with 13.5). The Lions brought constant pressure in Week 18, rattling Darnold and providing an effective blueprint for L.A.'s defense. Admittedly, Darnold didn't throw a pick in Week 18, but the Rams have appeared frisky as of late, recording three INTs from Weeks 15 through 17. With Darnold coming off a shaky performance and the Rams' defense fully rested, Minnesota's QB is likely to push on Monday night.

          Betting trends and more

          Courtesy ESPN Research

          • This is the second time the Rams have been home underdogs in a playoff game. (Though Monday's game won't be at SoFi Stadium, they are still considered the home team.) They lost 28-0 as 3.5-point underdogs against the Dallas Cowboys in the 1978 NFC Championship Game. The Vikings are 0-2 outright as road favorites in playoff games, losing 38-7 to the Philadelphia Eagles in the 2017 NFC Championship Game and 41-0 to the New York Giants in the 2000 NFC Championship Game.

          • Home underdogs in wild-card games are 20-9-1 ATS all time with an outright winning record (16-14). Last year, both home underdogs won outright (Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 vs. Eagles, Houston Texans +2.5 vs. Cleveland Browns).

          • The Vikings are 6-2 ATS in their past eight games. They are 5-1 ATS in their past six games as favorites.

          • The Rams are 3-0 ATS in their past three wild-card games (3-1 ATS under Sean McVay).

          • The Vikings are 11-6 ATS in the first half this season.

          • The Rams are 4-13 ATS in the first quarter this season, worst in the NFL. Unders are 11-6 in Rams first quarters.

          • Vikings team totals are 11-6 to the over this season.

          • The Rams are 3-2 outright and ATS as home underdogs this season.

          • Road favorites are 7-1 ATS in Monday games this season.

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