Men's Bracketology: 2026 NCAA Tournament

By Joe Lunardi Updated: 12/02/2025 at 9:00 a.m. ET

Welcome to the 2025-26 season! We'll have updated Bracketology projections every Tuesday through the end of the calendar year, with twice-weekly updates beginning in early January.

Bracket Watch

Headline No. 1: The top of the Big Ten is really good, legitimizing the notion that this could be the season its national championship drought finally ends. Headline No. 2: Michigan is really, really good, making the handful of us who picked the Wolverines to win it all feel positively splendid. They sit atop the season's first NET rankings -- and most others of note -- after pulverizing potential NCAA tournament teams San Diego State, Auburn and Gonzaga by a combined 110 points at the Players Era Festival. It was arguably the greatest Feast Week performance we've ever seen, launching Michigan to the top of our first December bracket and positioning it to chase a 1-seed all season. For now, circle the third week of February: The Wolverines will face fellow top seeds Purdue and Duke back-to-back in a possible Final Four preview.

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

Last Four In

First Four Out

Next Four Out

68-Team Bracket

MIDWEST (CHICAGO)

Buffalo

Oklahoma City

Philadelphia

Oklahoma City

EAST (WASHINGTON D.C.)

Greenville

Tampa

St. Louis

Philadelphia

SOUTH (HOUSTON)

St. Louis

San Diego

Greenville

Portland

WEST (SAN JOSE)

San Diego

Tampa

Buffalo

Portland

Conference Breakdown

Conference

Team

Photo illo by ESPN Illustration, additional photos courtesy of Getty Images, Associated Press, Imagn, USA TODAY Sports, Icon Sportswire, EPA/Shutterstock

RULES

ESPN's Bracketology efforts are focused on projecting the NCAA tournament field just as we expect the NCAA Division I basketball committee to select the field in March. ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi uses the same data points favored by the committee, including strength of schedule and other season-long indicators, including the NET and team-sheet data similar to what is available to the NCAA, in his projections of the field. Visit the NCAA's website for a fuller understanding of NCAA selection criteria.

68-Team Bracket

The 68-team bracket is the standard version of the NCAA tournament field that has been in place since 2011. If the 2021 field is comprised of 68 teams, there will be some key differences to past years, however.

The primary adjustment from a normal year is, of course, the playing of the entire NCAA tournament at a single site. This eliminates the need for geographical considerations in seeding. Additionally, there will be at least one fewer automatic qualifier this season, as the Ivy League's decision to forgo the 2020-21 season reduces the number of AQ entries to 31 for this season.

48-Team Bracket

In this projection, a condensed selection process would reduce the field by 10 at-large teams and 10 automatic qualifiers (the latter of which still receive a revenue unit). The top four seeds in each region would receive a bye into the second round, with four first-round games per region - 5 vs. 12, 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10 and 8 vs. 9 - being played without fans on the higher seed's home court.

To minimize travel, first-round pairings will be guided by geography to the greatest extent possible. And the reduced field results in only 32 teams competing at the central site. All participants must post a minimum .500 conference record - the "Lunardi Rule" - for at-large consideration.

16-Team Bracket

In this projection, the committee selects and seeds the 16 best available teams. There are no automatic qualifiers, although all non-competing conference champions receive the designated revenue unit.

To maintain some sense of national balance, conference participation is capped at four teams. And no region shall have more than one team from the same conference.

ESPN

Bracket Watch

Top Overall Seed

First Team Out

Last Team In

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

Last Four In

First Four Out

Next Four Out

68-Team Bracket

MIDWEST (CHICAGO)

Buffalo

Oklahoma City

Philadelphia

Oklahoma City

EAST (WASHINGTON D.C.)

Greenville

Tampa

St. Louis

Philadelphia

SOUTH (HOUSTON)

St. Louis

San Diego

Greenville

Portland

WEST (SAN JOSE)

San Diego

Tampa

Buffalo

Portland

Conference Breakdown

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