As the 2019 NCAA women's soccer season begins, the championship race is as wide-open as it has been at any point in its nearly 40-year history. Any of half a dozen teams, their rosters full of American and international talent, could win without generating so much as a ripple of surprise.
Yet rather than continued expansion, we've entered an era of power consolidation. There are more teams in the top tier these days, but that top tier is pulling away from everyone left behind.
When North Carolina won its 20th NCAA championship a decade ago, only six other schools had won a single title since the inception of the NCAA tournament in 1982.
Four more programs won their first titles in the decade since. Hooray for parity.
Two of those newcomers soon thereafter won second titles, with Florida State joining Stanford in that category with its championship a season ago. It looks more likely that UCLA or Penn State will win a second championship this year than that a new team will win for the first time.
Each of the top six teams in the United Soccer Coaches preseason Top 25 has won at least one national title since 2012. What's more, alumni of four of those programs -- North Carolina, Penn State, Stanford and UCLA -- accounted for more than half of the most common starting lineup employed by the U.S. in this summer's World Cup.
What do you need to know for the season ahead? Well, until the rest of the country teams can push their way into the club, it starts at the top.
The favorites
Florida State: The Seminoles had to replace Dagny Brynjarsdottir after winning their first national title. After winning their second, they return three potential Hermann winners in Deyna Castellanos, Jaelin Howell and Yujie Zhao and nine starters in all from last year's title game.
North Carolina: The Tar Heels have a new facility that Anson Dorrance believes puts the 21-time NCAA champions back at the top of the recruiting game. Not that they need much help with Alessia Russo healthy and Emily Fox, Taylor Otto, Brianna Pinto and Lotte Wubben-Moy back.
Stanford: The Cardinal couldn't catch a break last year, as they lost Tierna Davidson and Sophia Smith to injuries. Even so, they almost won it all for the second season in a row. Davidson left for the pros, but rising star Kennedy Wesley arrives. The well never runs dry.
UCLA: The Bruins were another team with no luck in 2018. Losing Hailie Mace has been somewhat offset by Anika Rodriguez's return to health and the prospect of even more growth from potential Hermann winner Ashley Sanchez. LSU transfer Lucy Parker is a boost for the back line.
USC: It still defies logic that USC had to play an NCAA tournament third-round game at Florida State. With that bit of bracket malpractice in the past, the Trojans return potential future U.S. internationals Savannah DeMelo and Penelope Hocking in the attack and Kaylie Collins in goal.
Sleepers to watch
BYU: While Santa Clara is deservedly ranked No. 13, the team that beat the Broncos in a head-to-head matchup and for the West Coast Conference title is unranked. It won't stay that way. BYU returns a lot of defensive continuity and special attacking talents in Mikayla Colohan and Elise Flake.
Indiana: Among the best regarded assistants in the sport when he was at Duke, Erwin van Bennekom could wait for the ideal job. If he thinks it's Indiana, then that's good enough. Wake Forest transfer Olivia Wos and freshman Avery Lockwood already represent a talent infusion.
Texas: The program has expected glory since hiring Chris Petrucelli in 1999. Twenty years later, Angela Kelly's Longhorns are finally ready to make good on those aspirations. Canadian World Cup vet Julia Grosso and Big 12 player of the year Cyera Hintzen are ready to win. A conference title is a place to start.
Names you need to know
Deyna Castellanos, F, Florida State: She has most of the U.S. women's national team, let alone the rest of college soccer, beat in social media following. But the roots of the Venezuelan's popularity, especially among Latin American audiences, has always been her game.
Jessie Fleming, MF, UCLA: How many players go an entire career without appearing in two World Cups and one Olympics? The Canadian Fleming has that résumé before her final college season starts. As might be expected, she plays with poise and sophistication rarely seen at this level.
Sophie Jones, MF, Duke: It took the incoming freshman all of 30 minutes to find the back of the net in Duke's first preseason game. The Gatorade High School Player of the Year, Jones is an enormous recruiting win for the Blue Devils, plucked out of Stanford's back yard in California.
Catarina Macario, F, Stanford: She is the reigning Hermann Trophy winner and two-time espnW player of the year. She has 31 goals and 24 assists in two years -- and she wasn't really healthy most of last season. She's lethal on set pieces but just as good with the ball at her feet in space.
Brianna Pinto, MF, North Carolina: Pinto picked up the ball at midfield in North Carolina's lone preseason scrimmage, split two defenders on a 25-yard run and rifled a shot from distance into the top corner. The opponent? Lyon. So yeah, the sophomore is already a world-class talent.
Early games to watch
Texas A&M at Santa Clara, Aug. 22: Either could make the College Cup. Both need this résumé win to stay home as long as possible in the postseason. Santa Clara's Kelcie Hedge and Texas A&M's Ally Watt are among the best Hermann candidates outside the ACC and Pac-12.
Stanford at Penn State, Aug. 23: Penn State knows it will be pushed physically in the rough-and-tumble Big Ten, so coach Erica Dambach tries to schedule tactical tests early in the season to get the best of both worlds (not to mention building a postseason résumé). The Nittany Lions were one of the offseason's big winners in landing Boston College transfer Sam Coffey.
Florida State vs. UCLA, Aug. 29: Hopefully it's a test run for a future College Cup venue at Banc of California Stadium, home of LAFC. But for the Seminoles, who for all their other continuity lost defensive stalwart and leader Natalia Kuikka, playing UCLA and USC in a matter of days will showcase how they are handling the expectations of defending a title.
Florida vs. USC, Aug. 29: The other half of the Banc of California doubleheader is an early look at Florida after it stunningly slipped to a losing record in 2018. A full season from Canadian international Deanne Rose will help, but this will set an early baseline for a big freshman class.
Georgetown at Virginia, Sept. 5: The Hoyas move on without forwards Kyra Carusa and Caitlin Farrell and goalkeeper Arielle Schechtman from last year's College Cup team. But the Hoyas have carved out a niche for themselves in proving wrong any predictions of their demise. Also looking for new stars, Virginia was picked for third in the ACC despite no All-ACC selections.