Expected fantasy points (xFP) strips away player talent and efficiency and focuses solely on opportunity.
FORP -- fantasy points over replacement player -- is the difference between a player's actual fantasy point total (FF points) and his xFP (or expected total).
Wide receiver adjustments are made as follows:
Rushing attempts: No change
Rushing yardage: Rush attempts multiplied by a rusher's expected yardage based on position and rush direction
Rushing touchdowns: Rushing xTD
Targets: No change
Receptions: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected catch rate based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving yardage: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected yardage based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving touchdowns: Receiving xTD
Two-point conversions: xTD multiplied by the league average 2-point rate
Fumbles lost: Touches multiplied by the league average rate
Return touchdowns: Excluded due to extreme rareness and randomness
Below is the 2025 xFP leaderboard for wide receivers:
2025 xFP & xTD leaderboards 2025 xFP: Wide Receivers (incl. adjusted stats) Rk. Player xFP Actual FORP G Rec Yds TD 1. Ja'Marr Chase , CIN 219 212 -7 11 88 972 5 2. Davante Adams , LAR 205 205 0 12 53 822 12 3. Chris Olave , NO 199 179 -21 12 73 908 6 4. George Pickens , DAL 193 237 44 12 62 862 7 5. Jaxon Smith-Njigba , SEA 193 259 67 12 69 949 4 6. Amon-Ra St. Brown , DET 191 218 27 12 70 842 6 7. Justin Jefferson , MIN 183 154 -28 12 64 868 5 8. Puka Nacua , LAR 179 223 44 11 73 802 4 9. Emeka Egbuka , TB 178 170 -8 12 59 859 5 10. Wan'Dale Robinson , NYG 177 174 -3 13 76 837 3 11. Tetairoa McMillan , CAR 175 176 0 13 57 835 6 12. Rome Odunze , CHI 172 146 -26 12 56 811 6 13. Nico Collins , HOU 169 168 -1 11 52 793 6 14. Troy Franklin , DEN 162 136 -26 12 50 745 6 15. Drake London , ATL 158 177 19 9 56 721 5 16. Ladd McConkey , LAC 153 156 3 12 57 694 4 17. Keenan Allen , LAC 149 146 -3 12 56 650 5 18. CeeDee Lamb , DAL 147 144 -3 9 47 695 5 19. A.J. Brown , PHI 145 162 16 11 50 722 4 20. Courtland Sutton , DEN 145 153 8 12 48 683 5 21. Zay Flowers , BAL 141 143 2 12 60 666 1 22. Deebo Samuel Sr. , WAS 140 152 12 11 53 524 4 23. DeVonta Smith , PHI 140 158 19 12 52 701 3 24. Jaylen Waddle , MIA 139 159 20 12 49 674 4 25. Michael Pittman Jr. , IND 138 166 28 12 56 616 4 26. Rashid Shaheed , NO 113 104 -9 9 42 538 3 26. Rashid Shaheed , SEA 23 11 -11 4 6 101 0 27. Stefon Diggs , NE 135 153 18 13 54 605 3 28. DK Metcalf , PIT 132 143 11 12 47 570 4 29. Romeo Doubs , GB 130 131 1 12 41 613 5 30. Michael Wilson , ARI 130 113 -17 12 46 631 3 31. Jerry Jeudy , CLE 130 81 -49 12 44 655 4 32. Marvin Harrison Jr. , ARI 126 125 -1 10 39 576 5 33. Quentin Johnston , LAC 123 133 10 11 38 554 5 34. Tre Tucker , LV 123 133 10 12 46 528 3 35. Jauan Jennings , SF 123 117 -6 11 41 561 4 36. DJ Moore , CHI 123 121 -2 12 42 506 3 37. Jordan Addison , MIN 121 97 -24 9 38 554 5 38. Jakobi Meyers , JAC 40 55 14 4 14 166 1 38. Jakobi Meyers , LV 80 68 -12 7 33 357 2 39. Rashee Rice , KC 119 131 12 6 42 393 4 40. Khalil Shakir , BUF 118 128 10 12 57 500 2 41. Tee Higgins , CIN 118 142 24 11 35 588 4 42. Parker Washington , JAC 112 111 -1 12 35 547 3 43. Jameson Williams , DET 111 145 34 12 41 571 2 44. Xavier Worthy , KC 110 90 -20 10 40 495 2 45. Brian Thomas Jr. , JAC 110 90 -19 9 39 541 2 46. Alec Pierce , IND 107 114 7 10 27 617 3 47. Elic Ayomanor , TEN 106 75 -31 11 38 539 2 48. Hollywood Brown , KC 105 117 12 12 40 453 3 49. Xavier Legette , CAR 96 75 -21 11 32 408 4 50. Malik Washington , MIA 95 87 -8 12 38 329 2 51. Josh Downs , IND 95 93 -2 11 41 411 2 52. Jayden Higgins , HOU 92 92 0 12 31 407 3 53. Chimere Dike , TEN 92 79 -13 12 32 349 2 54. Sterling Shepard , TB 89 81 -8 12 34 383 2 55. Olamide Zaccheaus , CHI 89 71 -18 12 40 365 2 56. Darnell Mooney , ATL 89 59 -29 10 29 481 2 57. Garrett Wilson , NYJ 88 100 11 7 37 435 1 58. Keon Coleman , BUF 87 90 3 10 31 408 3 59. Mack Hollins , NE 82 91 9 13 29 399 2 60. Tez Johnson , TB 79 84 5 11 27 332 2 61. Andrei Iosivas , CIN 79 72 -7 12 26 366 2 62. Jalen Nailor , MIN 78 67 -11 12 20 330 4 63. Kayshon Boutte , NE 77 113 36 11 21 360 3 64. Dyami Brown , JAC 76 50 -27 10 21 328 3 65. Calvin Austin III , PIT 76 66 -10 10 29 358 2 66. Adonai Mitchell , IND 26 22 -4 8 10 146 0 66. Adonai Mitchell , NYJ 48 32 -16 3 13 242 2 67. Travis Hunter , JAC 75 64 -11 7 30 319 2 68. Cooper Kupp , SEA 73 82 8 11 30 363 1 69. Tyquan Thornton , KC 73 70 -3 12 14 405 3 70. Xavier Hutchinson , HOU 73 76 2 12 26 300 3 71. DeMario Douglas , NE 71 87 16 13 25 288 2 72. Kendrick Bourne , SF 70 79 9 12 30 350 1 73. Terry McLaurin , WAS 70 62 -8 5 19 330 3 74. Isaiah Bond , CLE 69 37 -33 11 20 324 2 75. Ricky Pearsall , SF 69 60 -9 7 20 348 2 76. Dontayvion Wicks , GB 69 69 1 10 23 345 2 77. Darius Slayton , NYG 69 73 4 10 24 352 2 78. Malik Nabers , NYG 67 57 -10 4 19 314 3 79. Greg Dortch , ARI 64 75 12 12 26 210 1 80. Christian Watson , GB 63 76 12 6 17 340 2 81. Marvin Mims Jr. , DEN 63 65 2 10 23 261 1 82. Christian Kirk , HOU 63 47 -16 8 23 259 2 83. JuJu Smith-Schuster , KC 62 62 0 12 26 242 2 84. Van Jefferson , TEN 61 49 -12 12 23 310 1 85. Matthew Golden , GB 61 57 -4 9 21 272 1 86. Luther Burden III , CHI 60 67 7 11 28 258 1 87. Jaylin Lane , WAS 57 43 -14 12 19 290 1 88. Calvin Ridley , TEN 57 47 -10 7 21 314 1 89. Rashod Bateman , BAL 57 49 -7 10 18 273 2 90. Pat Bryant , DEN 55 51 -4 12 20 270 1 91. Tyler Lockett , LV 25 28 3 5 11 110 1 91. Tyler Lockett , TEN 29 23 -6 7 14 151 0 92. KaVontae Turpin , DAL 54 55 1 10 20 194 1 93. Cedric Tillman , CLE 53 46 -7 8 19 253 2 94. Jaylin Noel , HOU 53 48 -5 12 19 211 2 95. Tory Horton , SEA 51 65 14 8 13 211 3 96. Devaughn Vele , NO 51 47 -3 11 15 222 2 97. Ryan Flournoy , DAL 50 58 8 12 17 207 2 98. Tyreek Hill , MIA 49 54 4 4 19 246 1 99. Mike Evans , TB 49 34 -15 4 14 274 1 100. Joshua Palmer , BUF 47 45 -2 8 17 251 1 101. Hunter Renfrow , CAR 46 36 -10 6 17 181 2 102. DeAndre Hopkins , BAL 46 55 9 12 13 245 1 103. Jalen Tolbert , DAL 44 39 -4 11 13 200 2 104. Demarcus Robinson , SF 42 32 -10 10 14 222 1 105. Brandin Cooks , BUF 1 2 1 1 0 8 0 105. Brandin Cooks , NO 40 36 -4 10 17 194 1 106. Chris Moore , WAS 40 36 -4 11 11 192 2 107. Mitchell Tinsley , CIN 40 29 -11 12 9 186 2 108. Chris Godwin , TB 39 25 -14 4 13 182 1 109. Tre Harris , LAC 38 42 3 12 17 170 1 110. Jalen Coker , CAR 37 48 11 7 16 194 0 111. Dont'e Thornton Jr. , LV 37 20 -17 11 10 239 0 112. Jordan Whittington , LAR 37 32 -5 12 17 146 0 113. John Metchie III , NYJ 31 38 7 4 15 122 0 113. John Metchie III , PHI 6 6 0 7 4 19 0 114. Roman Wilson , PIT 36 39 3 12 14 174 1 115. Josh Reynolds , NYJ 34 23 -10 5 11 186 1 116. Jahan Dotson , PHI 33 38 5 12 11 185 1 117. Kalif Raymond , DET 32 38 6 11 15 140 0 118. Zay Jones , ARI 31 30 -1 8 10 164 1 119. Elijah Moore , BUF 31 29 -2 9 10 134 0 120. Luke McCaffrey , WAS 31 51 21 9 9 147 1 121. Allen Lazard , NYJ 29 21 -8 8 8 117 2 122. Tim Patrick , JAC 29 29 0 11 9 121 1 123. David Sills V , ATL 28 27 -2 12 11 131 1 124. Tyler Johnson , NYJ 28 35 7 10 10 142 1 125. Tyrell Shavers , BUF 28 34 6 12 11 145 0 126. Adam Thielen , MIN 28 17 -11 11 12 136 0 127. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine , MIA 27 20 -7 12 14 126 0 128. Jalin Hyatt , NYG 27 9 -19 7 8 148 1 129. Ray-Ray McCloud III , ATL 23 12 -10 4 9 101 0 129. Ray-Ray McCloud III , NYG 2 2 -1 2 1 16 0 130. Isaac TeSlaa , DET 25 34 9 12 4 102 2 131. Kyle Williams , NE 24 31 7 13 7 135 1 132. Savion Williams , GB 24 25 1 11 8 60 0 133. Isaiah Hodgins , NYG 24 24 1 3 7 105 1 134. Jimmy Horn Jr. , CAR 23 19 -4 9 7 81 0 135. Xavier Smith , LAR 23 27 4 11 10 114 0 136. Casey Washington , ATL 23 15 -7 7 7 139 0 137. Jack Bech , LV 22 21 -1 12 9 102 0 138. Brycen Tremayne , CAR 22 25 3 12 10 114 0 139. Arian Smith , NYJ 20 12 -9 11 7 94 0 140. Lil'Jordan Humphrey , DEN 1 0 -1 2 0 5 0 140. Lil'Jordan Humphrey , NYG 19 10 -10 3 5 92 1 141. Jamari Thrash , CLE 20 21 0 9 10 102 0 142. Mason Tipton , NO 18 11 -7 11 6 75 0 143. Curtis Samuel , BUF 17 21 4 6 6 81 0 144. Ashton Dulin , IND 17 20 3 10 5 71 0 145. Tylan Wallace , BAL 17 15 -2 11 4 65 1 146. Xavier Weaver , ARI 17 5 -11 7 4 83 1 147. Tutu Atwell , LAR 17 26 10 6 5 92 0 148. Devontez Walker , BAL 16 25 9 8 3 73 1 149. Isaiah Williams , NYJ 16 16 -1 10 8 64 0 150. Gabe Davis , BUF 16 12 -4 3 5 63 1 151. Austin Trammell , JAC 16 8 -8 5 5 86 0 152. KhaDarel Hodge , ATL 16 6 -10 10 5 85 0 153. Gage Larvadain , CLE 16 7 -9 8 6 67 0 154. Treylon Burks , WAS 14 19 4 3 4 73 1 155. Robbie Chosen , WAS 14 10 -4 3 5 75 0 156. Konata Mumpfield , LAR 13 14 1 12 4 56 1 157. Beaux Collins , NYG 13 5 -8 9 3 53 1 158. Xavier Restrepo , TEN 13 7 -6 2 3 54 1 159. Malachi Corley , CLE 12 16 4 8 5 29 0 160. Kameron Johnson , TB 12 18 5 12 4 53 0 161. Noah Brown , WAS 12 7 -6 2 4 61 0 162. D'Wayne Eskridge , MIA 12 8 -4 10 4 67 0 163. Skyy Moore , SF 12 11 -1 13 4 62 0 164. Marquez Valdes-Scantling , SF 11 8 -3 5 4 67 0 165. Braxton Berrios , HOU 11 10 -1 4 5 51 0 166. Gunner Olszewski , NYG 11 13 2 13 1 27 1 167. Malik Heath , GB 11 15 4 11 5 52 0 168. Jayden Reed , GB 10 14 3 2 3 47 0 169. Ben Skowronek , PIT 10 15 5 12 3 36 0 170. Dylan Drummond , ATL 9 6 -3 4 4 47 0 171. Devin Duvernay , CHI 9 1 -8 12 1 26 1 172. Ryan Miller , TB 8 11 3 12 2 41 0 173. KeAndre Lambert-Smith , LAC 7 1 -6 6 2 39 0 174. James Proche , TEN 7 10 2 4 3 38 0 175. Justin Watson , HOU 7 6 -1 2 2 27 0
