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March Madness came early in 2024. First Dayton lost to Duquesne in the Atlantic 10 quarterfinals on Thursday night. At the time, that result stood out as a big deal in and of itself. Then came Champ Week Saturday, truly one of the wildest days in recent memory for the bubble. On Saturday, in order: Florida Atlantic lost to Temple in the American semifinals. North Carolina fell to NC State in the ACC title game. Colorado lost to Oregon in the last Pac-12 championship game under the league's current organization.
At Bubble Watch, we never expected to trot out the definition of a bid thief so frequently. But let's look one more time at what we mean by a certain very important term this Selection Sunday. A bid thief is a team that: (1) wins its conference tournament; (2) would not have received an NCAA bid otherwise; and (3) plays in a league with at least one NCAA at-large bid recipient. We have four bid thieves in 2024. As a result, four at-large hopefuls that otherwise would have made the tournament will be left out. If there were zero bid thieves (like last year), we might be looking at "last four in" teams such as Indiana State, Seton Hall, Virginia or Pittsburgh. To be sure, any of those teams could still hear its name called on the selection show. But all are even more apprehensive than they were Saturday morning. With the new bubble created by four bid thieves, we may now be looking at "last four in" teams such as TCU, Colorado, Michigan State and Oklahoma. Nor is Florida Atlantic feeling entirely secure. Each of these new bubble teams arrived at this surprising status in their own fashion. TCU beat Oklahoma in the Big 12 tournament. Was that contest really an elimination game and we just didn't know it? Are the Horned Frogs safe? Colorado surged late in the season with eight straight wins before losing to Oregon by seven in the Pac-12 title game. Have the Buffaloes reached safe ground with that win streak, or did they need the automatic bid? Michigan State gave Big Ten No. 1 seed Purdue a stiff challenge before losing by five in the conference quarterfinals. But, at 19-14, did the Spartans need to build a stronger profile during the regular season? Will Florida Atlantic have the opportunity to follow up on its 2023 Final Four run? In the past 15 years, there's been just one Selection Sunday that came close to this level of uncertainty. Five years ago, in 2019, there were also four bid thieves. Just like this year, Oregon won the 2019 Pac-12 tournament and took a bid off the board. The Ducks were joined by Saint Mary's, Saint Louis and Murray State as bid thieves. The last at-large team in this 2024 field would have been a "last four byes" member one year ago. The presence of four bid thieves has transformed an already suspenseful section of the bracket. Bubble teams, beware. No one is safe in 2024. If we could measure the total amount of nervousness felt by all teams watching the selection show, this year would set the record. Here is our current projection of the bubble:
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