This column originally published in March 2024, but has been updated in advance of the 2025 men's NCAA tournament.
Those paying attention to March Madness -- really paying attention -- have noticed a trend in recent years.
In the first 30 years of the modern tournament era (1985-2014), at least one 12-seed won a first-round game in all but three years (1988, 2000 and 2007). No. 12 seeds not only won more first-round games than No. 11 seeds (44 to 41) during that span, they also advanced to the Sweet 16 more often (20 to 17).
That's why for years, the go-to upset for those filling out brackets has involved a No. 12 beating a No. 5 in the first round, and maybe even winning again in the second round ... and understandably so.
Only seeds 1 through 6 and the No. 10s reached the Sweet 16 more often than No. 12s in that three-decade stretch. That made it well worth picking at least one 12-seed to win a game or two.
It's not a sure thing anymore, though. Recent data suggests it may be time to shift your attention up a seed line instead.
The downfall of the 12
After failing to win a first-round game just three times in 30 years, No. 12 seeds have been shut out in three of the past nine tourneys.