EAGAN, Minn. -- The conventional wisdom goes something like this: With Justin Jefferson making $35 million per season and Jordan Addison eligible for a contract extension, the Minnesota Vikings can't afford to re-sign receiver Jalen Nailor before he enters the free agent market this spring.
All available evidence suggests the likelihood of that scenario. The Vikings have remained committed to Addison despite a series of off-field issues. They haven't had substantive contract talks with Nailor, are roughly $57 million over the NFL's estimated 2026 salary cap and they drafted receiver Tai Felton last spring in part as a backstop to Nailor's potential departure.
Nailor, 26, is one of the few success stories from the four drafts that span general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah's tenure, having risen from a sixth-round pick in 2022 who struggled to stay healthy to a playmaking No. 3 receiver in an offense that uses three-receiver sets on 60% of its snaps. He has appeared in more games (52) than any Adofo-Mensah draft pick, has developed into a slippery route runner and has proved so much faster on the field than his 40 time (4.5) that teammates long ago nicknamed him "Speedy."
Playing 57.4% of the Vikings' offensive snaps since the start of the 2024 season, Nailor has caught 54 passes for 809 yards and 10 touchdowns, including two scores in Sunday's 34-26 victory over the Dallas Cowboys. He has not been as productive as Addison, who over the same time period caught 102 passes for 1,451 yards and 12 touchdowns, but that's largely been a function of playing time and targets.
"He's a guy where the sky's the limit as long as he continues to get better each year," receivers coach Keenan McCardell said of Nailor. "I always tell guys that they have to keep finding something to get better at each year, and he has. And I think if he continues to do that, he can play as long as he wants to play because he's smart, he's physical, he has the speed to run by people, and now he's getting opportunities to make plays. So for a guy like him, the rest of this season means a lot."
Injuries and a deep receiver group limited Nailor to 12 receptions and 151 offensive snaps in his first two seasons, but he elevated into the third receiver role in 2024. Although he caught a career-high 28 passes for 414 yards and six touchdowns, Nailor's hands were not always reliable. He dropped a key third-down pass in the red zone during a Week 8 loss to the Los Angeles Rams, as well as a potential 46-yard touchdown reception three weeks later against the Tennessee Titans.
The 2025 season offered renewed promise. Nailor entered training camp in a contract year, knowing he would likely start the Vikings' first three games while Addison served a three-game suspension. A broken left hand sidelined him for the final two weeks of August, prompting the team to trade for veteran Adam Thielen and putting Nailor in a precarious position. Would an injury derail an opportunity to build his resume?
Ultimately, McCardell said, the injury proved a turning point in his career.
"I had always talked to him about keeping his eyes on the ball," McCardell said. "We'd watch film and I'd say, 'Look at your eyes. Look at your helmet stripe. Are they on the ball? A lot of times they weren't. But we just had a conversation a few weeks ago and I said, 'I hate to tell you this, but the best thing that could have happened to you is breaking your hand because it made you focus more on your hands, your hand-eye coordination, watching the ball all the way to the touch point.'"
Nailor hasn't dropped a pass this season and has nearly matched his 2024 production with three games remaining, despite the Vikings' offensive struggles as they transitioned to quarterback J.J. McCarthy.
"I definitely feel like [McCardell] is right," Nailor said. "As I was working back from it, my hand wasn't as strong yet once I initially started catching again. So I was really having to focus on it and being more intentional with my eyes on the ball. I really feel like that's played a major role, just that part of catching instead of trying to look up the field and trying to make something happen before I even got the ball."
It's hard to estimate where Nailor's numbers would be had McCarthy performed more evenly this season. Nailor has been the option of 25% of McCarthy's off-target throws, and that doesn't count the dozens of other routes he has run where even a glance at All-22 film shows he was open.
Addison has seen 15% of McCarthy's off-target throws, but he has also struggled more to bring in some of McCarthy's catchable passes. ESPN Research has credited him with a team-high six drops, more than in his previous two seasons combined.
More importantly, at 23, he remains a central part of the Vikings' plan for the near future. And that remains the case even after he missed a walk-through practice one week after returning from suspension, prompting coach Kevin O'Connell to bench him for the first quarter of the Vikings' ensuing game.
"There was a lot of dialogue about expectations ... and then the roadmap for him to continue to grow on the field as well, most importantly, as off," O'Connell said. "And he's done that."
That leaves Nailor almost certainly facing his final three games with the Vikings -- and a chance to put the finishing touches on a resume that will be among the best at his position in the free agent market.
Jefferson said this week that Nailor has "definitely made himself a good bit of plays and he's made himself a lot of money."
"I'm not really thinking much about that," Nailor said. "I'm just trying to finish out this year strong and then whatever happens, happens in the future. I'm just leave it all in God's hands and just do what I can do and just finish out the season strong."