You're going to see a lot at this year's Winter X Games and you should see a lot because it stands to be some epic excitement seen best through your computer or handheld device (television is so 2008). But the athletes that most consistently remind you of the air they're catching, the speed they're going and what happens when things go wrong are on the ones SnowboardX and SkierX course.
Six folks at a time will be ripping down a course made longer last year to offer plenty of opportunities to pass. There's contact. There are crashes. Especially with the skiers- those poles and planks are pointy, you know? Things can get a little frightening. All of which benefits you, X Games enthusiast, because while certain events around Buttermilk may be a little easier to predict, laying odds on a winner for men's and women's SkierX and SnowboardX is no easy task. Anything can happen.
Take Errol Kerr, who in '08 as a Winter X greenhorn gassed up his '96 Astro van and hauled on his own dime from Truckee, CA to Aspen. Errol then ripped through qualifying with the best time and pushed into the final in Men's SkierX. This year, he's packed on some weight (better to fend off the bumps and carry speed) and will show up with a real chance to podium, though he knows he's not the favorite.
"The only person that I'd look at is Daron Rahlves," Kerr told me. "He won last year and is hands down the best skier out there."
If Rahlves gets ahead, he's almost impossible to catch. Assuming he doesn't make a mistake, Which he rarely does. Slot him in to repeat, with Kerr, '08 silver medalist Stan Hayer (a consistent on podiums internationally) and two time gold winner Casey Puckett hovering like vultures should Rahlves falter.
On the women's side, Ophelie David has won two straight golds and dominated the world scene (five World Cup titles). I asked Aussie Jenny Owens, a finalist last year, if David should be handed this year's gold:
"Well, she has been hard to beat over the past few years but this season, things are different. Everyone has put in a lot of work over summer and now the competition is getting tough which is good," she said. As for a dark horse (anyone not named "Ophelie" or "David,") she chose herself. "I know the other girls know that I'm a threat too, I just haven't been that consistent over the past three years because I haven't had a team or tech, I've done everything myself. This season I have a coach, still no tech but I know I'll be that dark horse this year!"
Nice pitch but I'm sticking with Ophelie.
SnowboardX has been dominated by two names Lindsay Jacobellis and Nate Holland. While Jacobellis still conjures images of The Most Embarrassing Fall Ever, costing her top billing at the '06 Olympics, should the economy stay crap-tastic Jacobellis will have more SnowboardX golds to hock on eBay than any other racer on the planet, male or female. Look for Maelle Ricker, your top rider for '08 on the FIS World Cup and podium stander in seven of eight races, to bounce back from a poor showing at Winter X last year to challenge Jacobellis.
Holland has won three straight, equaling the high mark of Shaun Palmer in SBX, and is a favorite to win a fourth. Who am I to say he won't? Seth Wescott, of course, has never won X Games gold despite a whole lotta tryin', and who am I to say he will this year?
Okay, so that's four races, and I've picked the four favorites. How's that for going out on a limb? But that part up above where I talk about anything happening? It can, and likely will. Honestly, I'd be surprised if all four of these athletes take home gold. If two come through, that would be a good percentage. Weird stuff happens on the X course, and if it doesn't in '09, it'll be the exception to the rule.