Rúben Amorim at Man United: Predicting his team, formation

Rúben Amorim has received so much coverage since being linked to the Manchester United job that most people know the manager has mostly played a 3-4-2-1 formation throughout his career.

Given that presumably Manchester United have done their homework on him, this raises the question of how the players in the current United squad might fit that system -- a scheme United haven't really used except in one-off situations.

Of course, the club can turn to the transfer market and acquire players who fit a 3-4-2-1 formation, or who they think are simply better than the ones already there. But after racking up losses in excess of £255 million ($320m) in the past three seasons, they are walking a fine line in terms of both the Premier League's Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) and UEFA's equivalent guidelines on Financial Sustainability. They'll have some sort of budget and will save some money if they don't extend the expiring contracts of Christian Eriksen, Victor Lindelöf and Harry Maguire, but we don't expect a massive net spend over the next 12 months.

What does this mean? For a start, United will need to be especially clever with their spending. Unlike previous managers, Amorim won't be the driving force, instead working with sporting director Dan Ashworth, technical director Jason Wilcox and chief executive Omar Berrada to find the players he needs. The rest of the 2024-25 campaign will necessarily be devoted to this task: figuring who fits where and how, where they need to add, and who they might want to shift to free up resources.

Yet this can't be devoted solely to rebuilding for the future. Amorim has to deliver results now, too, partly to build confidence with players and fans, partly to ensure United do not take a further hit in terms of prestige and revenue by missing out on the Champions League. In other words, he's going to have to do his experiments on the fly, which is a tall order.

The good news? For all the negativity surrounding United under Erik ten Hag, they're not that badly placed in the table. Yes, sitting 13th is rather embarrassing, but they're also just four points out of third place, with 27 games to go. Not an insurmountable obstacle.

ESPN's Gabriele Marcotti and Mark Ogden break down how Amorim will build his team, address issues and implement his system.  

The playing system

Both Gab and Mark think 3-4-2-1 will be the preferred system in the short to medium term, though Gab isn't so sure he can implement it straight away.

"He has to deliver results too; he can't treat the rest of the season as one long preseason for next year," he says. "We may see something closer to a 4-2-3-1 or 4-1-4-1, which isn't much different to what was there under Louis van Gaal, but with concepts that are more tied to the 3-4-2-1 he wants to play."

Mark feels more confident it will be a 3-4-2-1 formation from the start.

"Amorim has already said that this will be his team from day one and that his players will have to fit his system rather than the other way around," said Mark. "He has enough centre-halves who can play in a back three, but I think his biggest problem initially will be legs in the heart of midfield. There is no box-to-box energy there, so he might need to be creative. My hunch is that he will start with what he knows, but then quickly become more pragmatic when he realises how imbalanced his squad is."

Addressing the central defensive options

Amorim's teams have generally featured a ball-playing goalkeeper, in some cases one who comes right out to help build from the back and break the press. We likely won't see that -- at least not early on -- at United, but in André Onana they have somebody very comfortable on the ball.

As for the back three, on paper at least it's easy to imagine Lisandro Martínez on the left, Matthijs de Ligt in the middle and Leny Yoro (currently injured) on the right, but there are several reasons to be cautious. Amorim has tended to use outside central defenders who are good at progressing the ball into midfield and comfortable defending in wide areas when necessary. On the left, Martínez is a fit in many ways. Luke Shaw, when (if?) healthy, might be an alternative.

Centrally, Gab is fine with De Ligt: "He's a defensive leader, he's a good passer, he can step up and act as an additional holding midfielder which sometimes is required in Amorim's system. And you don't want him out in wide areas against wingers."

Mark, however, is skeptical: "I don't think De Ligt and Martínez play well together, they're both too rash and they attack the same balls. You need a blend to make it work. I don't think De Ligt is great on the ball and he's slow. De Ligt and Martínez also get dragged out of position way too often."

Amorim's problem is that Jonny Evans, Maguire and Lindelöf are all out of contract next summer, so can he back one of those ahead of De Ligt? Evans is 36, but he has been United's most consistent defender since he returned to the club at the start of last season. His calmness and experience could bring some order to a back three, but imagine the message it would send if Amorim picked Evans over more expensive and younger defenders. Still, he successfully went with the age and experience of Sebastián Coates at Sporting, so why not?

Yoro is the long-term choice on the right, and a good fit in the sense that he's athletic and comfortable on the ball. On the other hand, as Gab points out: "Yoro turned only 19 this month and has been sidelined for six months. He has a season and a half as a starter under his belt, but that was in a back four.

"I think it's a huge ask to expect him to instantly start in a new system, at a new club, and think he'll hit the ground running. If he does, great, but I'm not sure it's going to be automatic that he gets thrown in at the deep end straight away."

Mark agrees Yoro might need a bedding-in period: "Yoro needs time and patience, but while he will have been frustrated at missing this season so far because of injury, it's done him a favour because it means his confidence hasn't been wrecked by playing in [former manager] Erik ten Hag's back four."

If he does have a spell of assimilating to the first team, there are few convincing alternatives. Gab suggests one option (until Yoro is ready) might be Diogo Dalot, given the types of outside centre-backs Amorim has used before. Mark reckons Lindelöf is more likely, given that Amorim will want to be more conservative in his first few outings.

"Dalot's defensive qualities are limited. He's basically a frustrated winger. So while Lindelöf isn't -- and never has been -- good enough for United, he'd be a better option in a back three than Dalot."

Who can be a wing-back?

On paper, United have two competent attacking full-backs who can be deployed as wing-backs in Dalot and Mazraoui. Mark thinks they're the obvious initial choices for the wide areas. Longer term, Shaw's return might make him a candidate on the left, but there's also Harry Amass, who did very well in preseason but is only 17 and didn't play at all under Ten Hag.

Gab isn't so sure.