Chris Harden 258d

Women's Bubble Watch: March Madness bracket predictions

Women's College Basketball, NC State Wolfpack, Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Virginia Tech Hokies, Syracuse Orange, Louisville Cardinals, Duke Blue Devils, North Carolina Tar Heels, Florida State Seminoles, Miami Hurricanes, Texas Longhorns, Oklahoma Sooners, Kansas State Wildcats, Baylor Bears, West Virginia Mountaineers, Iowa State Cyclones, Kansas Jayhawks, UConn Huskies, Creighton Bluejays, Marquette Golden Eagles, Villanova Wildcats, Ohio State Buckeyes, Iowa Hawkeyes, Indiana Hoosiers, Michigan State Spartans, Michigan Wolverines, Nebraska Cornhuskers, Maryland Terrapins, Penn State Lady Lions, Stanford Cardinal, UCLA Bruins, USC Trojans, Oregon State Beavers, Utah Utes, Washington State Cougars, Arizona Wildcats, California Golden Bears, Washington Huskies, South Carolina Gamecocks, LSU Tigers, Ole Miss Rebels, Alabama Crimson Tide, Vanderbilt Commodores, Tennessee Lady Volunteers, Auburn Tigers, Mississippi State Bulldogs, Texas A&M Aggies, Arkansas Razorbacks, Gonzaga Bulldogs, Princeton Tigers, UNLV Lady Rebels, Drake Bulldogs, Richmond Spiders, Toledo Rockets, Cleveland State Vikings, Saint Joseph's Hawks, Columbia Lions, Green Bay Phoenix, VCU Rams, George Mason Patriots, Ball State Cardinals, Belmont Bruins, California Baptist Lancers, Santa Clara Broncos, Missouri State Lady Bears, Tulsa Golden Hurricane, North Texas Mean Green, UAlbany Great Danes, Maine Black Bears, Temple Owls, Florida Gulf Coast Eagles, High Point Panthers, Eastern Washington Eagles, Hawai'i Rainbow Wahine, Stony Brook Seawolves, Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, Fairfield Stags, Norfolk State Spartans, Sacred Heart Pioneers, UT Martin Skyhawks, Holy Cross Crusaders, Chattanooga Mocs, Lamar Cardinals, Jackson State Lady Tigers, South Dakota State Jackrabbits, Marshall Thundering Herd, Grand Canyon Lopes

Champ Week has been brutal for non-Power 5 teams that were hoping to be in play for at-large bids. Teams such as Cleveland State, Columbia and Saint Joseph's, once hopeful of an invite if they didn't win their conference tournaments, now likely have no such expectations.

Portland's upset of Gonzaga in the WCC tournament title game Tuesday means the conference will be a two-bid league as the Bulldogs take a bubble spot. Add impressive play from bubble teams in the Big Ten during their tournament and the bubble is a lot smaller than it looked a week ago.

To examine the bubble for the 2024 women's NCAA tournament, we'll use ESPN Analytics' Women's College Basketball Power Index (BPI), which represents how many points above or below average a team is.

Along with the team ratings, BPI generates Strength of Record (SOR), a measure of how impressive each team's record is given their schedule. We'll also utilize the Strength of Schedule (SOS) the selection committee uses.

Here is our current projection of the bubble through Tuesday's games and the conclusion of every Power 5 conference tournament:

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