The 2024 AFL season gets underway Thursday. Who are the favourites? Who are the legitimate contenders? And who should already be booking September holidays? Jake Michaels has ranked every club ahead of Opening Round in his pre-season edition of tiers.
Note: ESPN's AFL tiers will be a monthly column throughout the 2024 season.
The clear-cut, unquestioned favourites
1. COLLINGWOOD
The reigning premier deserve flag favouritism and, who knows, this could just be the beginning of something special for the black and white army. Collingwood got stronger in the off-season with the addition of Lachie Schultz, a player who has booted 30 goals in each of the last two seasons. It's quite possible that by the end of the year the Magpies will employ the best player in the sport (Nick Daicos), best defender (Darcy Moore), best 35-plus player (Scott Pendlebury) and, of course, best coach in Craig McRae. They are, without doubt, the team to beat, but that's not to say they cannot be beaten.
2. BRISBANE
Nobody can be surprised that the Lions are the mandatory challenger to Collingwood. And nobody would be surprised if they go one better and lift the premiership cup this year. He won't play immediately, but the addition of key defender Tom Doedee was one of the more underrated pickups of this recent off-season and will plug a glaring hole for Chris Fagan's side. Young gun Will Ashcroft will return mid-season and bolster a midfield led by co-captain and two-time Brownlow Medal winner Lachie Neale, who is showing no signs of slowing down. The forward line remains as dangerous as any in the league. Big things should be expected of the Lions this year.
Very real contenders, but with MAJOR question marks
3. MELBOURNE
You can't deny the talent of the Demons. After all, this squad is only two years removed from the 20-1-4 season which culminated in a premiership. The problem is you also can't deny or overlook the plethora of issues which have plagued the club over the last 12 months. This off-season has been dominated by unwanted storylines; most notably trade rumours (whether true or false) surrounding troubled star midfielder Clayton Oliver, Joel Smith's illicit substance saga, and the character assassination of head coach Simon Goodwin. And then there's the on-field issues, with conversion and forward line woes haunting them late last year in what turned out to be another straight sets finals exit. But with all of that said, few are better positioned to win this year's flag than the Dees.
4. CARLTON
If you take the Magpies as a given, the Blues were the second best story of 2023. Michael Voss' side was undefeated through four weeks and then suffered a simply horrific nine-week run which yielded just one win against the hapless Eagles. They then turned their season on its head, losing just once en route to a totally unexpected preliminary final berth. But just like the Demons, there are some real questions with this side. Can Charlie Curnow dominate the top eight teams like he does the bottom 10? Are Harry McKay's goalkicking woes behind him? Can Sam Walsh get and stay healthy, and maintain the standard he set in last year's finals series? Can the Blues avoid near-fatal losing skids? If the answer to all of these is 'yes', watch out for this team!
Finals locks but probably nothing more
5. GWS
There weren't many who predicted the Giants would play finals football in 2023. There were even fewer who tipped they would reach a preliminary final and fall one point short of upsetting the eventual premier! But finals is now the standard for this club, led expertly by Toby Greene, who is pound-for-pound the best player in the sport. GWS might also have the best defender in the game in Sam Taylor, and the most promising under-24 prospect in Tom Green, who averaged 32 disposals, 15 contested possessions, six clearances and five tackles per game last season. They have a tougher draw this year, of course, but in Adam Kingsley, they have an excellent coach who can navigate the trials and tribulations. Anything short of finals would be bitterly disappointing. Can they go all the way? Not so sure.
6. PORT ADELAIDE
They were a top four team last season and, at one point, the joint flag favourites along with Collingwood. But as good as the Power were last year, coughing up 85 points per game was never going to cut it in September. In fact, they were the worst defensive side of any team to play finals football. It was crucial to address this glaring issue during the trade and free agency period, and that's exactly what the club did by signing key backs Esava Ratugolea and Brandon Zerk-Thatcher. Young midfield stars Zak Butters, Connor Rozee, and Jason Horne-Francis should all find improvement and be able to lead this side back into finals.
7. SYDNEY
The Swans had the best trade period, bar none. They gave up Dylan Stephens but added Brodie Grundy, who will take the fulltime ruck responsibilities, and bolstered their midfield depth with the additions of Taylor Adams and James Jordon. Addressing areas of concern was critical and Sydney did just that. The best part? All three acquisitions should be season-long best-23 players. Add in the fact they won 12 games last year, six of them coming in the final seven weeks of the home-and-away season, and that they've played in September in each of the last three years and it's difficult to see any sort of drop off on the horizon.
On the finals fringe
8. ADELAIDE
The naming convention of this tier doesn't mean to poke fun at the Crows, or Ben Keays. After all, they were as finals fringe as could be last year following a controversial and heartbreaking Round 23 loss to the Swans. But we don't need to re-hash that now. Since 2020, Adelaide has won three games, seven games, eight games and, last year, 11 games. They didn't just beat up on the lesser teams, either, with five of those wins coming against top six teams. The recruitment and subsequent captaincy appointment of Jordan Dawson was brilliant, as is the sustained excellence of Taylor Walker. Oh, and how about Matt Crouch's late season return to form? There's no doubt the Crows are trending in the right direction and missing finals this year would feel like a failure.
9. WESTERN BULLDOGS
The Bulldogs are a curious team. With skipper Marcus Bontempelli, most would be comfortable in saying they have, at worst, the second best player in the sport. Pair him with the league's best pure inside midfielder in Tom Liberatore, last year's All-Australian ruck in Tim English, and a group of the most promising young key forwards, and they really should be in flag contention. But over the last two seasons they are just 24-22 and nothing more than a middling side. The talent alone will be enough for the Bulldogs to be in contention for finals, but under the current regime it's tricky to see how they can be much more than that.
10. ST KILDA
The Saints finished top six last year and at no point in time did anyone really believe in them. That means nobody should object to their positioning on these tiers. St Kilda really feels more like the ninth-to-12th-best team in the league. Defensively they are as sound as any -- no surprise under the guidance of Ross Lyon -- but they just cannot score. Last year, the Saints averaged 77 points per game, and only twice hit triple figures. The last three premiers have averaged 93 points per game in their winning season. Even with Max King available for the full year -- he played just 11 games in 2023 -- there's not enough firepower to suggest this will be fixed anytime soon.
Cliff incoming in three... two...
11. GEELONG
The Cats are in a pretty weird spot, truth be told, and they have to get their own tier. I'm not saying they can't or won't play finals in 2024, but they are in no way the lock they have been throughout the Chris Scott tenure and, at some point, the bottom threatens to fall out of this team. Yes, this has been said before, but it is bound to actually happen eventually, and there were already signs last year such a drop-off was on the horizon. The Cats won just 10 games and lost five of their last six to miss out on a finals berth. Joel Selwood isn't coming back, Patrick Dangerfield and Tom Hawkins are another year older, and the midfield depth is worryingly shallow. I don't think too many people will be shocked if Geelong wins eight or nine games and misses finals for the second straight year. That probably best sums up where this footy club is at.
Potentially frisky, likely underwhelming
12. GOLD COAST
Every year we fall in love with the Suns and what they could potentially be, and every year they fall short of expectation. But could this be the year things are different and the club plays finals football for the first time? It goes without saying the appointment of triple premiership coach Damien Hardwick is a game changer, as might be the fact the Suns were able to draft a host of highly-touted and AFL-ready academy prospects. Gold Coast really does feel like a side that is close to taking that significant leap and becoming a side others fear to face. Will it be this year? Maybe. It very much could be. It's also just as likely they fall flat and endure another year in footy wilderness.
13. HAWTHORN
The Hawks began last season winning just once through the first nine weeks but ended it as one of the most dangerous sides in the competition, albeit one with just seven wins on the year. But despite that record, nobody wanted to play them in the second half of the year. Sam Mitchell's side caused one of the upsets of the year, downing eventual premiers Collingwood at the MCG in Round 21. They also beat runner-up Brisbane in Round 13. The Hawks have built a young, exciting midfield core with Jai Newcombe, Will Day, James Worpel, and Connor Nash, they have one of the most talented young key forwards in Mitch Lewis, and maybe the league's most important skipper in James Sicily. Keep a close eye on them.
You can safely book your September holidays
14. ESSENDON
The Bombers were one of the real winners from the AFL trade and free agency period, or so everyone believes. But just how much better will they be with Jade Gresham, a 35-year-old Todd Goldstein, Xavier Duursma (who had fallen out of the Power's best 23), and then essentially swapping Brandon Zerk-Thatcher for Ben McKay in defence? Call me crazy, but I'm not expecting an almighty leap in production. It's worth remembering the last time we saw this team play, Collingwood humiliated them by 70 points. The time before? A horrific 126-point loss to the Giants. Essendon went 11-12 last season, but even that flatters them, with six of those wins coming against the bottom four and four of them against the woeful Eagles and Kangaroos. Don't buy the hype.
15. RICHMOND
At the mid-point of 2023 I claimed the Tigers were more likely to finish the 2024 season in the bottom four than play finals. I'm standing by that. After half a decade of dominance, Richmond opted for the fast-tracked rebuild, acquiring the likes of Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper last off-season. And as prolific as they were in their first season, there just seems to be far too many holes. It's little wonder Damien Hardwick wanted out. Forgotten key forward Tom Lynch will return to the fold after a year on the sidelines battling injury, but he'll now be playing somewhat of a lone role following Jack Riewoldt's retirement. Trent Cotchin is also gone and rumours continue to circulate that Dustin Martin could be headed north.
16. FREMANTLE
Would anyone really be surprised if the Dockers finish bottom four this season? I wouldn't. This team hasn't gotten considerably worse in the off-season -- though the loss of goal sneak Lachie Schultz does hurt and continues a worrying trend of the club losing best-23 talent -- but so many other teams in the rebuild phase appear to have blown right past them. On the bright side, Caleb Serong enjoyed a breakout year in 2023 and is likely to be one of the more productive midfielders in the league this season, working in tandem with running mate Andrew Brayshaw. Unfortunately, there's little else to get excited about right now if you're a Dockers fan.
Wooden Spoon battle
17. NORTH MELBOURNE
Last year was another disappointing season for the Kangaroos, but there were at least a few positives to take away from it. The arrival of Rising Star Harry Sheezel and George Wardlaw injected life into the club, Luke Davies-Uniacke continued on his path to becoming one of the league's premier on-ballers, and Nick Larkey is now a legitimate chance to win the Coleman Medal. Alastair Clarkson has his work cut out for him, but the good news is he has time to get things in order. Will it be this year? No chance. Is it on the horizon? Yeah, I think so. Give it two to three years.
18. WEST COAST
West Coast was the worst side in the league last season -- it wasn't particularly close -- and that's not changing this year. The Eagles are coming off a year in which they ranked bottom three in just about every one of Champion Data's 'premiership standards' metrics. They have won just five games in the last two years and, even with last year's top draft pick Harley Reid joining the fold, there's no evidence or reason to suggest any significant improvement is on the cards for 2024. It's tricky to find even four or five wins on the fixture for West Coast and that's why the club is favoured, yet again, to finish last.