Josh Smillie is easy to spot. Bearing blonde locks and a hulking 194cm frame he towers over opponents, so much so that he's taller than nine of the 10 most prolific goalkickers in V/AFL history.
He appears out of place amongst the midfield whippets that dominate the upper rungs of 2024's draft class. But then the footy hits the ruckman's palms, Smillie gets to work and everything makes sense.
For the first 10 weeks there was no more dominant force in the elite footy pathways. With the Eastern Ranges, Smillie looked like a man amongst boys, tallying 27 disposals per outing to go with 11 goals in seven games. For the AFL Academy he played across each third of the ground and was one of his country's best afield against VFL opposition. His physicality and combativeness shone through, but it was Smillie's composure, vision and execution with the ball that propelled him to No. 1 on draft boards.
Smillie's physical traits in the contest are breathtaking at times. In the first five minutes of Round 1 -- against top-five fancies Jagga Smith and Finn O'Sullivan -- he put the league on notice. At a forward 50 stoppage Smillie separated from his direct opponent with a shove, read the ball off the ruckman's hands, burst through two would-be tacklers and snapped truly on his non-preferred left foot.
The best of Josh Smillie on display. At 194cm, his strength and power in stoppage is unmatched at junior level. Finished with 24 and 2 goals in a big win.
— Jasper Chellappah (@Jasperc53) March 25, 2024
Christian Moraes (26d, 2g) & Jagga Smith (30d) also great in a game featuring 5 potential top 10 picks#AFLDraft @ESPNAusNZ pic.twitter.com/gwjkFpZTog
It encapsulated the requisite aggression and skill to go with his god-given size. 10 weeks on from that moment and Smillie appeared the next modern day six-foot-four prototype, joining a lineage of such names as Patrick Cripps, Marcus Bontempelli, and Tom Green.
Smillie entered the national carnival as a starring name for Vic Metro, but his campaign didn't reach the lofty heights others had set for him. His numbers were fine - he averaged 10 contested possessions from his 19 disposals and an impressive six clearances. He just wasn't quite his dominant self. Smillie didn't take a contested or intercept mark all carnival and used the ball at just 56% by foot. His size was often a non-factor as smaller midfielders went to work around him, and he missed All-Australian selection as a result.
More importantly, there were large patches of games where Smillie was absent. He never inserted himself into the contest through effort without the ball and sometimes watched on as the game intensified around him. He wasn't shy in lambasting teammates on-field, either. Draft watchers were left with more questions than answers for the pick one fancy.
The spectrum of Smillie's performances has been vast, but his draft range is still pencilled within the top five. Those clubs - currently Richmond, North Melbourne, West Coast, Adelaide and St Kilda - now have big questions to answer in the next three months. Namely, do recruiters truly believe that he can become the next Cripps or Bontempelli? Does the idea of Smillie marry up to the reality of his game?
Smillie will need more than size to thrive at the next level. Does he possess the intangibles of those two modern day greats, or is his leadership and energy holding him back?
November's draft is a sliding doors moment for teams in a position to draft Eastern's best on-baller since Christian Petracca. One club will fully buy into the hype, ignoring the peripheral murmurings of the industry to grasp at Smillie's tantalising, trajectory-altering upside.
Other clubs may lean towards the known commodities, opting against this draft's home run swing. With all the talent in the world at his disposal, don't be surprised if Smillie makes clubs pay for that choice.