They swear the four-point line is real.
Starting in the Governors' Cup of the 49th season, the PBA will implement a four-point shot from 27 feet away.
Other leagues have tried it. The WNBA All-Star game featured it in 2022. The PBA has used the four-point shot in two consecutive All-Star games as well. But this conference will be the first time the shot will be implemented in competitive play -- shaking up the game in a way that fans and players have never seen.
Social media was ablaze with mixed reactions, most of them having doubts about its necessity and whether it would be effective in the long run.
In order to get a better grasp on the change, we've asked experts and coaches to weigh in on the inclusion of the four-point line in the PBA.
How will it affect style of play?
As the PBA Board of Governors were deciding whether to add the four-point line, the rationale from new vice-chairman Alfrancis Chua was simple.
"Feeling ko d'yan, bibilis ang laro and mahihirapan ka mag-zone [defense]," Chua mentioned in an interview.
So let's assume teams would play more man-to-man defense. Will the San Miguel Beermen benefit by playing through June Mar Fajardo with Marcio Lassiter spaced one pass away from 27 feet? Or will guards turn the corner on a ball screen action easier because it's harder to send help from the nail?
What's interesting about these scenarios is whether the line will be used as a weapon to score more or just be used as a threat to maximize spacing on the floor.
Coach Charles Tiu -- the coach at College of St. Benilde Blazers and Strong Group Athletics, and also now part of the staff of the Converge FiberXers -- thinks there will be a shift in the offensive approach.
"Yes, I definitely think it would change the way some [PBA] teams run their sets," Tiu said.
He also addressed the long-standing debate in the basketball world, if fouling to prevent a potential game-tying shot is a necessary strategy. In the PBA context, they would now consider giving up a foul when the lead is four.
"A four-point lead is no longer safe at the end of the game because it's just a one possession game. So if you're up by four, you're definitely fouling everytime," Tiu added.
On the other hand, PBA head coaches have remained firm that they will not hunt for four-point shots if they aren't within the flow of the offense. They emphasize the importance of maintaining a balanced attack, focusing on efficiency rather than forcing long-range attempts that could disrupt the team's rhythm.
TNT Tropang Giga head coach Chot Reyes is barely thinking about the new line and just views it as a way to spice things up for the league. It's a wait-and-see mindset for him, as he believes the true impact of the four-point line will only become clear once teams have had time to adjust.
"Hard to answer questions [about the four-point line] until it's fully implemented. We're not sure if it really works, but at least the PBA is trying new things," Reyes said.
A mix of excitement and caution is what Magnolia Hotshots head coach Chito Victolero feels. While the possibility of truly taking advantage of this rule is there for the taking with his main gunner in Paul Lee, they're still going to play it by ear when the opportunity presents.
"It is somehow interesting dahil may new challenge in terms of executing our offensive and defensive schemes sa Magnolia. But I hope this creates some sort of motivation to all our players to be one of the pioneers of this new rule," Victolero replied.
How could analytics impact the way it will be utilized?
If the math wizards told us that three is greater than two, PBA folks now have the right to say four is greater than three.
The dilemma that the PBA will have to figure out is whether it's practical to attempt shots from the four-point line. In the past Philippine Cup, the average three-point percentage was 32.7% in 30.6 attempts. It will to be tough to see how the four-point shot will thrive in the PBA with those kind of numbers..
Based on the last conference, which players can extend their range to the four-point line? Looking at players with a 36.6% shooting from three, the average this year in the NBA, along with at least five attempts per game we came up with this list:
Marcio Lassiter - 54.3% on 5.36 attempts
Robbie Herndon - 40.7% on 5.4 attempts
Alec Stockton - 40% on five attempts
Andrei Caracut - 39.3% on 5.09 attempts
Calvin Oftana - 39% on seven attempts
Ralph Cu - 38.9% on 5.4 attempts
Bryan Santos - 37.9% on 7.9 attempts
Juami Tiongson - 37.5% on 6.7 attempts.
The introduction of the four-point line in the PBA can definitely revolutionize the game, but it also brings with it a host of uncertainties.
Renowned analytics guru and the assistant coach of the Blackwater Bossing and UP Fighting Maroons, Ryan Alba, believes that it's too early to assess the value of the four-point shot. He emphasizes that the true impact of this new scoring option can only be accurately evaluated once a significant amount of data has been collected and analyzed.
"We don't know how accurate our players are yet from that distance and how much they're 'really worth.' With data, we can learn the true value of the shot and help determine if it's worth it to go for the big value, less accurate shot or stick with the traditional shots," Alba said.
Ultimately, Alba suggests that the math game within basketball will have a drastic change, which does not affect the pace and turn it into high-scoring matches. In short, teams will continue to have a shot diet that fits personnel, with the intended improvement of spacing through the four-point line.
"It will move the needle, but it won't turn the game into a 48-minute sprint. I don't think that long distance jumpers inherently affect the speed of the game outside, but spacing out from behind a longer line could open the half court game up more and lead to easier," Alba said.