ENGLEWOOD, Colo. -- The Denver Broncos have done many things well in getting to 14-3 and earning the AFC's No. 1 seed in the upcoming NFL playoffs. But as they gear up for their second consecutive postseason appearance under coach Sean Payton, there's one thing they're discussing more than anything else.
"We've been talking about turnovers, turnovers, turnovers," Broncos quarterback Bo Nix said.
As the Broncos have moved through their postseason bye week in preparation to host an AFC divisional round game next weekend, creating turnovers has been one big-ticket item on their to-do list. For all the good their defense did this season -- accumulating a franchise-record 68 sacks and being the NFL's best red zone defense -- the Broncos were minus-3 in turnover margin. That is tied for 19th in the NFL, as the Broncos recovered four fumbles and had 10 interceptions.
But perhaps their turnover luck is changing, as Denver forced four turnovers in its past two games, including a pick-six by nickel Ja'Quan McMillian in the regular-season ending win over the Los Angeles Chargers.
"[Payton] has been harping on it all year," Broncos edge rusher Nik Bonitto said after the win over the Chargers. "All week, he [was] mad at the defense, so we've been hearing from him about the takeaways, and he even played a little video of all the takeaways we've had on the defense [the past three seasons]. ... We were due for a couple."
Payton's turnover chats have involved plenty of data. He has pointed out that since the 2000 season only one team -- the 2021 Los Angeles Rams -- has gone on to win the Super Bowl with a negative turnover margin in the playoffs. The Rams were minus-2 in four games that postseason. Dive a little deeper, however, and what the Rams did was even more of an anomaly.
In Payton's quarter-century sample, teams with the best postseason turnover margin went on to win the Super Bowl 13 times. Teams with the second-best turnover margin won it five times, and teams with the third-best margin were NFL champions three times.
That means that 84% of the past 25 Super Bowl winners ranked in the top three in playoff turnover margin. The 2021 Rams, 2019 Kansas City Chiefs (tied for fourth), 2018 New England Patriots (tied for sixth) and 2017 Philadelphia Eagles (tied for fifth) are the exceptions.
"We talk about it, get tips, get deflections, knock the ball out, rally to the ball," Broncos defensive tackle Zach Allen said. "I think the big thing is to keep getting in the right spots, keep doing the right things. Play good defense and good things happen."
Denver's lack of fumble luck is even more vexing considering the effectiveness of its pass rush. The Broncos have set single-season franchise records for sacks each of the past two seasons -- with their 68 sacks this season falling just four short of the NFL single-season record. They also had a staggering 164 quarterback hits yet recovered only four fumbles in 17 games.
"That just doesn't make sense," Bonitto said.
Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has said that the Broncos need to "attack the elbow, attack the ball more" when they have their sights on a quarterback. He said, "We haven't done a good enough job of that this season."
Some league personnel executives who have watched the Broncos play have another theory. They believe Denver's ability to contain quarterbacks from escaping the pocket by collapsing from all sides has a negative turnover production impact. Without much space to escape or run, quarterbacks often tuck the ball away earlier than they otherwise would have.
That might be true, but Payton still wants more takeaways. The Broncos spend multiple practice periods on drills geared toward knocking the ball free. But Joseph said that the defense's priority is limiting the opposing offense's production on each play. If turnovers are the eventual result, even better.
"You have to be in good positions, you have to win the critical downs," Joseph said. "The turnovers haven't come ... [but] we have to focus on playing the right way. ... I'm not going to chase turnovers. I want guys tackling. I want guys in great leverage. I want guys doing their job the right way. I think it's a fine line between chasing that and not playing good football.
"When you win third downs, that's a turnover. We're second in third downs. We're [first] in red zone. For me, that's the critical parts of football and playing defense."