Canelo Alvarez (48-1-1, 34 KOs) faces Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. (50-2-1, 32 KOs) in a 12-round bout with no title at stake Saturday night at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
The fight will be at a catch weight of 164.5 pounds, marking the first time Alvarez will fight above 155 pounds. This represents a big change in his preparation and diet before a fight.
Canelo is facing the unknown consequences of his new weight, whether his power increases or decreases, or whether the extra weight will get him tired late in the fight against a bigger and more powerful opponent.
In order to win, Alvarez will need to consider the following keys:
Move and hit
There is no mystery about the main offensive key for Canelo: the counterattack. Chavez has only one gear, going forward while throwing punches. Canelo has improved his defense, and this time he will have to rely on it. Dodging punches and returning inside hooks, or sidestepping and discharging punches from the outside when Chavez attacks could be his path to the KO.
Body issue
Chavez is bigger and stronger, but he had to endure a long camp in which the priority was to cut weight. It might be possible that strengthening his middle zone has not been a priority. Hitting Chavez to the body will be a smart move to reduce his power and pressing drive while also hurting him.
Energy saving
Canelo has worked his weight up in two stages. First, he has done everything necessary to arrive at the weight limit of 164.5 pounds. Then, after the official weigh-in Friday, he plans to add 10-15 pounds. It is impossible to accurately predict whether the extra weight could affect his physical condition. It should be wise for Alvarez to manage his energy to start the fight. He might need it if the fight goes long.
Avoid the ropes
Chavez has proved to have an effective and forceful offense when his opponents are leaning against the ropes. It is there that the "Son of the Legend" can rely on the volume of his punches, particularly on those powerful hooks to the ribs that force to open any guard. If Canelo is cornered against the ropes, he would have to go for the clinch or get out of there with his footwork, or accept the exchange of short punches with unpredictable consequences.
Trust the process
Eddy Reynoso is still in Alvarez's corner, but this time, work has been a little different. There were changes in the preparation, in Canelo's weight and in the type of opponent. Chavez is bigger, has a longer reach and is the more powerful puncher. His success in this challenge will largely depend on the adjustments his corner has done before the fight and the ones they will need to do during the bout.