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Predicting Twins' 2017 record

The Twins need a big year from a young core that includes Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano. Brace Hemmelgarn/Getty Images

Reason for optimism: With the exception of their respected elder, first baseman Joe Mauer, the entire starting lineup is under 30, stocked with power and upside.

Reason for pessimism: Thanks to an inability to strike out batters, the rotation will give up runs faster than the offense can score them.

If a team were forced to allow an opponent to bat 10 times over the course of a game, instead of nine, you can quickly calculate the effect it would have on that team's win percentage. Rather obviously, you'd expect this team to allow 11 percent more runs over the course of a season. In the present scoring environment, that's 80 runs a year. Think of the consequence like this: An otherwise .500 team that was league average in every other way would end up 73-89, or 16 games under .500.

Allowing a team an extra at bat each game is the same as letting it hit three extra balls into the field of play each game, which is exactly what the Minnesota Twins allow to happen year after year after year.

Although they broke their five-year streak of striking out batters at the lowest rate in the majors by finishing 28th, Minnesota's rotation still finished last among starters and fell slightly further behind the league average compared to 2015.