I have focused on the overs with each of my First Look columns so far this season, but they came in yet again in Week 4. This is truly remarkable. The average total this week was lined at nearly 50 points, the highest we have seen in our database going back to 1986.
I mentioned last week that I didn't expect a sudden correction, yet I found myself betting an under anyway in the Jaguars-Bengals game on Sunday. I loved it -- I thought this was the one matchup with underlying numbers that couldn't justify an inflated total. It was looking great for about 29 minutes. But, in the end, it had no shot.
Our early look last week, on the Dolphins getting +7.5 or +7 against the Seahawks, was theoretically good. The Dolphins were only +4 at some shops by the time the game kicked off. That is a substantial move in our favor, but the 31-23 final score was an unfortunate result.
That's sports betting in a nutshell. This is why I always stress to people -- win or lose -- the importance of reviewing past wagers and comparing them not only to the game results, but the prices you paid relative to the closing market. Betting markets are the most predictive public source that exists in determining the outcomes of games. If you're on the right side of moves like that more often than not, it's a good sign.
There are two sides that jump out to me right away that I think will offer value going forward in Week 5. Let's take a look: