Week 8 features an early start from London as the Denver Broncos (2-5) take on the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5) at Wembley Stadium. The game starts at 9:30 a.m. ET streaming live on ESPN+. Jacksonville is a 2.5-point favorite with the game total set at 39.5. What can we expect from a betting standpoint from the early start?
Betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks and Erin Dolan; fantasy expert Eric Karabell; fantasy and sports betting analysts Eric Moody and Andre Snellings; and ESPN Stats & Information's Seth Walder, ESPN analyst Jason Fitz and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz provide their top plays for the matchup.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.
Broncos vs. Jaguars (-2.5, 39.5)
9:30 a.m. ET on ESPN+, Wembley Stadium, London
These two teams have combined for zero wins since Week 3, going a combined 0-8 in October. The Jags are laying 2.5 points and have lost six straight games as a favorite. Which team do you see righting the ship and earning a much-needed W?
Schatz: I want to believe in the Jaguars, and advanced stats believe strongly in the Jaguars. But so much of that is based on one game, the 24-0 victory over Indianapolis in Week 2, which is the second-best single game of the year by DVOA. (Kansas City over San Francisco last week is the best game.) That's especially true on defense, where the Jaguars would drop from 18th to 27th in DVOA without Week 2 and have had their two worst games of the year in the last two weeks. By comparison, the Broncos defense has been so strong this year that if you take out their best game, they drop all the way from third in DVOA to ... fourth. The Denver offense and special teams are a wreck -- altitude, as always, masks the latter problem in standard stats -- but I think the Broncos defense is so good that Denver can come away with the win here.
Fulghum: I planted my flag on the Jaguars as the AFC South champions after they beat the Chargers 38-10 in Week 3 to move to 2-1 on the season. Oops. Four consecutive losses later, they're in third place in the division. However, I believe this is still the best team in the division with the best QB. Jacksonville has a +18 point differential this season. Every other team in the division has a negative differential. For perspective, the 5-1 Minnesota Vikings have a +21 point differential. Jacksonville has certainly underachieved, but I still think there's a glimmer of hope in the second half of the season. Beating the wildly disappointing Broncos in London would be a great start to a second half surge. Jacksonville -2.5, under 39.5.
Marks: Jags at home (wink wink) in London. Jacksonville will play its ninth game across the pond -- most of any franchise -- and is 4-2 in London since 2015. This will be Denver's second time playing in England; the Broncos lost 24-16 to the 49ers in their previous trip. A rookie head coach, with not much experience across the board, equals advantage Jags. Russell Wilson, if he plays, will be suiting up with a hamstring injury. Meanwhile, no team has been able to stop Travis Etienne, and the Jags offensive line is allowing Trevor Lawrence a lot of time in the pocket (no sacks the last four games). Jags and the under is the play.
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Jaguars RB Travis Etienne looks to be the main benefactor of the James Robinson trade to the Jets. Fresh off a 114-yard performance, his rushing prop is set at 69.5 yards. How are you playing his props this week?
Karabell: I think we should take Etienne over the rushing line, but let's not be so hasty on his overall value changing much from a week ago. JaMycal Hasty busted out a 61-yard touchdown run in Week 6 and he played a role as a receiver out of the backfield for the 49ers last season. Etienne is awesome, but it seems unlikely the Jaguars want him handling 20 rushing attempts per game, too. This line feels low for a reason, and the reason is probably volume.
Schatz: The strength of that Broncos defense is against the pass, not the run, where they are only 18th in DVOA. I doubt they take a big lead in this game -- the offense just is not good enough -- so the run will always be in play even if the Jaguars are behind. Etienne is clearly the man now when it comes to carry shares and Football Outsiders projections have Etienne going over this prop 67% of the time.
Snellings: I've got Etienne over 69.5 rushing yards (+104) and over 96.5 rushing/receiving yards (-115). Etienne doesn't really seem to benefit all that much from Robinson's departure because he had already snatched the job with his play in recent weeks. In Weeks 5 and 6, Etienne set a seemingly unsustainable rushing efficiency standard, averaging 78.5 rushing yards on only 10 attempts per game while playing only 33 snaps per game. That's 7.9 yards per carry. Then, in Week 7, he took over and played 53 snaps, out-touching Robinson 15-0, but sustained his ridiculous rushing efficiency with 114 yards on 14 carries (8.1 yards per carry). The Broncos' defense is strong, but Etienne seems to be on his square right now.
Moody: I recommend betting on Etienne over 69.5 rushing yards. Over the last three games, he has averaged 11.3 rushing attempts and 90.3 rushing yards. The Jaguars rank 13th with 27.1 rushing attempts per game. In this game, Etienne is well-positioned to see a high percentage of those rushing attempts. With 6.1 rushing yards per attempt, he ranks fourth in the league. Last week against the Giants, Etienne played 80% of the snaps. On Sunday, history could repeat itself. While the Broncos supposedly addressed the run defense this offseason, it's still an issue. The Broncos allow 4.7 yards per attempt, tied for ninth in the league. In addition, the Broncos allow 113 rushing yards per game. The secondary is the strength of Denver's defense. The Jaguars will attack them on the ground.
What else are you playing (player props/markets) in this matchup?
Fortenbaugh: Under 39.5. You have the worst offense in the league in the Denver Broncos traveling to London looking, once again, to lean on a defense that is surrendering an average of just 16.4 PPG (third in NFL). Jacksonville is supposed to be better than its record indicates, yet, the Jags somehow continue to live up to that record by making big mistakes in big spots. Additionally, the Jaguars are averaging just 17.7 PPG over their last four outings. Apologies to the good people of London. You did nothing wrong to deserve this game.
Karabell: Greg Dulcich over 30.5 receiving yards (-119). Denver's new tight end missed the first five games with a hamstring injury but has become a legitimate threat over the last two games, turning 12 targets into eight catches and a touchdown and easily surpassing 30.5 receiving yards in each contest (44 and 51 yards, respectively). Regardless of the quarterback, the UCLA product should continue to thrive.
Schatz: Courtland Sutton has gone under this week's prop in three of the past four games and targets seem to be moving over to Jerry Jeudy, so I'll go with Sutton under 56.5 yards with nice +110 juice.
Snellings: Melvin Gordon III under 39.5 rushing yards (-119). After his public vote of confidence, Gordon was back in the starting lineup and leading the Broncos' rushing attack last week ...to the tune of 33 yards on 11 carries. Going back five weeks, Gordon has averaged only 25.4 rushing yards per game on a paltry 2.9 yards per carry while only going over 39.5 yards once. In addition, Latavius Murray has been the more effective runner, averaging 45.0 rushing yards per game on 11.5 carries in his two weeks with the Broncos.
Moody: Under 39.5. I'm with Mr. Fortenbaugh on this one. The Broncos have failed to score more than 16 points six times this season. In addition, Denver ranks last in red zone offense, last in goal-to-go situations and 30th on third down. The under is 4-0 in the Broncos' last four games following an against-the-spread loss and 4-0 following a straight loss. With 371.3 total yards per game, the Jaguars rank seventh in total yards but 16th in points scored. The total has gone under in 12 of Jacksonville's last 16 games.