The 2019 coaching carousel is shaping up to be incredibly ... boring. Especially if USC hires Urban Meyer.
Wait, what? Isn't Meyer the most exciting hire USC could make? Yes, he is. But he's also not coaching, and would fill possibly the only marquee vacancy of this year's cycle. There would be no chain reaction of job openings.
Rutgers is currently the only coaching vacancy, and only a handful of other mid- to low-level Power 5 jobs are expected to open. If Rutgers brings back Greg Schiano, who industry sources say remains the focus of the search, there would be no movement among currently employed coaches. No changes are expected in the Big 12. Illinois' recent surge increases the chances Lovie Smith is back in 2020. The ACC figures to be quiet other than possibly Boston College.
The SEC might become a hot spot, but would potential vacancies like Vanderbilt, Ole Miss and Arkansas really shake things up?
There will be some surprises in the cycle. There always are. Someone will go to the NFL. Someone will retire. Someone will get fired somewhat unexpectedly. Some school will see a market of great candidates and few vacancies and be aggressive. Some grotesque guarantee payment will be made to make a coach go away.
Here are five realistic hypothetical scenarios that would send the coaching carousel spinning this year.