Oregon's playoff chances fell flatter than its Hail Mary attempt Saturday night following its 37-34 home loss to Washington, essentially eliminating the two-loss Ducks from the College Football Playoff.
The Pac-12 still has hope, as one-loss USC can still win the conference, but No. 6 Oregon was the selection committee's highest-ranked team from the conference. Now the worst thing that could happen to the Pac-12 would be for two-loss Oregon, Utah or UCLA to win it.
Oregon's loss was Tennessee's gain, as that's one fewer team the Volunteers have to worry about on Selection Day. It also could help one-loss Clemson, which needs a boost anywhere it can get it. Even in mid-November, the playoff field runs deep, with the Big Ten and the SEC still boasting multiple contenders.
LSU and Georgia clinched their respective divisions on Saturday, guaranteeing they will face each other in the SEC championship game and keeping the door open for the first two-loss team in the top four -- a scenario that bleeds into another, with the possibility of three SEC teams in the CFP.
It seems like a stretch, given TCU is still undefeated after its difficult road trip to Texas and the Big Ten champion should be a lock. There are eight teams that still have a realistic chance to reach the CFP -- and that doesn't include two-loss Alabama.
No two-loss team has ever made the CFP. So why not Oregon or Alabama?
Oregon loses the head-to-head against Georgia, and the Ducks' résumé won't stack up against the other contenders, even with a win against a ranked opponent in the Pac-12 title game.
It's one thing for the selection committee to reward a two-loss conference champion like LSU with a top-four spot following wins against Alabama and Georgia; it's an entirely different burden of proof for a two-loss team that didn't win its division. When the selection committee is evaluating teams it deems comparable, there are three tiebreakers that Alabama would fall short of: championships won, strength of schedule and head-to-head competition.
If Alabama runs the table and finishes 10-2 -- which it should, considering its last two opponents are FCS school Austin Peay and Auburn -- the Crimson Tide will have only two wins against CFP top-25 teams (Texas and Ole Miss). Beyond that, none of Alabama's opponents is currently above .500. In addition to having a résumé issue, it loses the head-to-head tiebreaker against both LSU and Tennessee.
Even with Alabama missing, the SEC still has the best chance of any Power 5 conference to get multiple teams into the playoff, but here's how each contender gets there with three weeks to go: