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Ten games that impact the CFP, and five that may surprise

Illustration by ESPN

The first of six College Football Playoff rankings won't be released until Halloween, but the jockeying for a coveted semifinal spot begins in September.

"They're highly motivated because of that opener against Florida State," LSU coach Brian Kelly said of his players.

The CFP selection committee bases its weekly rankings on the entire season to-date, meaning the value of wins can increase or decrease as the season progresses and teams reveal their true identities. A September win could ultimately translate into much more if that opponent goes on to win its conference title -- or it can be rendered moot in the committee meeting room if the opponent goes on a downward spiral out of the ranking.

With a four-team playoff in place for one final year, there is tremendous pressure to finish the season undefeated or with one loss (no two-loss team has made the four-team CFP). That means every game matters -- but some will carry more weight on Selection Day.

Here are 10 games that will have the biggest impact on the playoff field, starting with the most significant (plus five that just missed the cut), followed by five more that will surprise you because of how they, too, might influence the top four:

1. Nov. 25: Ohio State at Michigan