Let's be clear: Nothing would be more surprising than to see the SEC left out of the College Football Playoff.
The SEC has been the most represented conference in the CFP with 11 appearances during the playoff's nine seasons. Alabama (and Ohio State) are the only programs that have been ranked by the committee in all 54 rankings, and no team has had more playoff appearances than the Crimson Tide with seven. Alabama, though, already has one loss and entering Week 5 wasn't in the Associated Press Top 10. LSU now has two losses following Saturday night's last-second thriller against Ole Miss, and undefeated Georgia is still a mystery following a close win at Auburn.
"I don't know how good a team we've got," Georgia coach Kirby Smart said after the game. "I really don't."
Every conference has a cause for concern, but history reminds us some have more reasons to worry than others. The Pac-12 has the fewest CFP appearances of any Power 5 conference with two (Oregon and Washington) and has gone 1-2 in playoff games. The ACC has missed the playoff in each of the past two years. The Big 12 has reached the playoff five times -- but has won only one game.
In the final season of a four-team playoff, somebody will be left out.
Based on the selection committee's tendencies and protocols, here's a look at how each Power 5 conference could be snubbed, ranked in order of the most-to-least likely scenarios: