Michigan, Georgia and Ohio State in the top three in some order, followed by everyone else. That has basically been the story of the SP+ rankings all season, with brief interludes by teams like Alabama (first in Week 2), Texas (third in Weeks 6-7) and Bama again (third in Week 9).
Ten weeks into the season, Michigan is distancing itself a bit in first, but a new usurper is emerging: Following yet another blowout win, Oregon has jumped to fourth overall, only 0.3 points behind No. 3 Ohio State. The Ducks are leading the nation in scoring by nearly two points per game over everyone else, and they're up to 21st in defensive SP+ as well. Even including their Oct. 14 loss to Washington, they're outscoring opponents by an average of 47-16, a margin better than every unbeaten team but Michigan. If they played Washington in a neutral-field rematch tomorrow, SP+ would favor them by 4.7 points. The big three are stalwarts this year, but Oregon is trying to make it a big four.
Below are this week's SP+ rankings. What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.
SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.
Here are the full rankings: