Zach Arnett's firing Monday at Mississippi State will go down as a performance-related change, but timing, finances and opportunity also played into the move.
Arnett logged only 11 games as the Bulldogs' coach, after being elevated to the role following Mike Leach's sudden passing in December. Although the selection of Arnett, the team's defensive coordinator, to replace Leach made sense at the time, Mississippi State also was going through an athletic director transition, and would hire its new AD, Zac Selmon, almost exactly one month after promoting Arnett. A cost-friendly contract made a move easier for Mississippi State, and the team's recent struggles after a decent start, which included a win over Arizona, accelerated the decision. Arnett finishes 5-6 overall (4-6 this season).
Sources said Mississippi State had been poised to fire Arnett immediately after the Egg Bowl in Week 12, but several factors -- Saturday's 51-10 loss to Texas A&M, which also dumped its coach Jimbo Fisher in a rapidly warming coaching carousel -- resulted in Monday's decision. Mississippi State must upset Ole Miss on Thanksgiving to avoid its worst SEC record (1-7) since 2006.
Arnett is a talented, well-respected coach who should get another opportunity to lead a program, perhaps even right away at San Diego State, where he served as an assistant from 2011 to 2019. The 37-year-old also could be one of the most coveted defensive coordinator candidates -- hello, USC -- this winter. Less than one season isn't enough to evaluate a coach, but Arnett can draw some lessons from his brief run at Mississippi State, which shouldn't have veered from the offensive identity Leach established in Starkville.
Mississippi State is a challenging job in a league that will only become more competitive with the additions of Texas and Oklahoma in 2024. But coaches can win there, and any SEC job brings added appeal. Dan Mullen had three AP top-20 finishes, and Mullen, Joe Moorhead and Leach all had teams that finished ranked in the final College Football Playoff standings. Mississippi State needs a coach who can develop recruits and be aggressive in the transfer market (FBS and junior college), while not letting Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss take all the oxygen in the state. League or regional ties likely will matter, and Moorhead's two-year tenure is a reminder that the fit truly matters.
Here's a look at who Selmon, a former Wake Forest tight end who spent most of his administrative career at Oklahoma, could target for the role.