In 2022, Marcus Freeman's first season as Notre Dame's head coach, it was the Week 2 loss to Marshall that stunned the Fighting Irish.
Last year, it was an unexpected loss at Louisville that knocked Notre Dame out of the College Football Playoff in early October.
Now, it's a real shocker -- losing to Northern Illinois, a 28.5-point underdog.
"We've been here before," Freeman said after Saturday's defeat. "Now, it's time to get it fixed. We've got to get it fixed and get back to playing football the way we know how to play, we've played before, and we can, and we will."
Even if the Irish do fix things, it might not be enough to make the CFP selection committee ignore this giant ink stain on their résumé. The independent Irish can't earn an automatic bid because those are reserved for the five highest-ranked conference champions. Their only path to the 12-team playoff is through one of seven at-large bids.
If Notre Dame runs the table and is competing with other one-loss teams for a spot, the combination of a bad loss and fewer wins against ranked opponents could exclude the Irish from the playoff. It didn't help Notre Dame that Georgia Tech lost to Syracuse, as the Irish will play the Yellow Jackets on Oct. 19, and it would help if Georgia Tech was a ranked opponent. The regular-season finale against rival USC likely will be Notre Dame's best remaining opportunity to impress the committee.
It's still far too early, though, to declare Notre Dame doomed -- especially in the new 12-team format, which no one, including the committee, has experienced before. For now, Notre Dame is out of the projection for the committee's top 12.
Keep in mind, the following is a prediction of how the committee would rank the teams after Week 2, not how it would seed them. The 12-team playoff seeding will look different from the ranking. The top four highest-ranked conference champions receive byes, and the top five conference champions receive entry into the field.
Here's our second prediction of the season for how the committee would rank -- not seed -- the top 12 teams.
