Last night, America decided. The people have chosen their leader.
I am referring, of course, to The Oregon Duck. The College Football Playoff committee named unbeaten Oregon as the No. 1 team in its inaugural 2024 rankings. It's an accomplishment in itself -- one that required beating the No. 2 team at home and the defending national champ on the road -- though obviously it's not something you hang a banner for. (Sorry, Mississippi State.) After all, in the 10 years of the CFP era, only two teams won the national title after scoring the first No. 1 ranking, and that was when we let only four teams in the gate.
With 12 playoff spots now available, including five automatic bids for conference champions, we are no longer allowing just the committee to decide who gets to attend the dance. Nearly half the field, and four quarterfinal spots, will be decided by actual conference standings. These title races mean more than ever, and each conference has its own mix of favorites and dark horses at the moment. So let's walk through how the CFP table has been set and who is most likely to score those automatic bids.
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CFP picture
SEC | Big Ten
ACC | Big 12
Group of 5
What stood out about the CFP rankings?
Here's a sentence I never thought I'd type: First indications this year are that the CFP committee might be ... underrating the SEC?
A few years ago I learned that by combining poll averages (AP and coaches polls) with a computer average derived from both power ratings (SP+ and FPI) and résumé ratings (Résumé SP+ and strength of record), we could approximate the CFP committee's thinking pretty well. This almost BCS-style rating lined up with what the committee produces most of the time, enough so that when the committee strayed into something different, it stood out. And if the committee was looking at things differently this time around, in theory that might stand out too.
Here's what this BCS-style approach produced this week, along with where the committee disagreed.