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Rose Bowl confidential: Coaches, scouts break down Oregon-Ohio State

Dillon Gabriel against the Ohio State defensive line will be a crucial matchup. Brian Murphy/Icon Sportswire

If there were ever a game from the 2024 season to run back, it's hard to pick a better sequel than Ohio State playing Oregon again.

In the College Football Playoff quarterfinals at the Rose Bowl, we get Round 2 of perhaps the season's best prizefight.

Oregon's 32-31 victory on Oct. 12 in Eugene, which included three fourth-quarter lead changes, had a bit of everything.

Just the final two minutes were enough fodder for a Netflix series. There was an alleged intentional penalty that drained critical seconds off the clock and prompted a rule change. There was a last-second gaffe by OSU quarterback Will Howard that cost Ohio State a shot at a winning field goal. And there was a controversial offensive pass interference call on star Ohio State freshman Jeremiah Smith that boomeranged the Buckeyes out of field goal range on the final drive.

Those plays on the last drive overshadowed an overall banger of a game -- seven overall lead changes, Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel showcasing his near-flawless brilliance and Oregon coach Dan Lanning calling a successful line-drive onside kick to epitomize how he lives the coaching mantra that fortune favors the bold.

So what can we expect Wednesday? Ideally, a game that lives up to its predecessor.

ESPN polled 10 NFL scouts on their winner, and six of them picked Oregon, with reasons ranging from Lanning's big-game guts to the Ducks' unflinching consistency to a mismatch up front when the Oregon defensive line plays against Ohio State's offensive line. (Remember, star Ducks defensive end Jordan Burch didn't play in the first game and Ohio State was much healthier up front heading into the game.)

The scouts we polled disagree with the oracles in the desert, as No. 1 Oregon is a 2.5-point underdog to the No. 6 Buckeyes. If that holds, it will be the first No. 1-ranked team to be an underdog to a team outside the top five since 2007, when No. 9 Oklahoma was favored over No. 1 Missouri.

Here's a breakdown of what scouts and opposing coaches who have studied both the Ducks and Bucks think will be the keys that determine the game.