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Way-too-early 2025 college football coaching hot seat tiers

Illustration by ESPN

The last mind-bending college football coaching carousel took place in the fall/winter of 2021, sparked by two highly successful coaches -- Lincoln Riley and Brian Kelly -- who voluntarily jumped between top-tier programs.

Usually, no one chooses to leave Oklahoma or Notre Dame, but Riley and Kelly did, moving to USC and LSU, respectively. The cycle included moves at all four programs, plus changes at Oregon, Florida, Miami, Washington, TCU and Virginia Tech.

The 2025 coaching carousel could be the next to send the college football world spinning. Riley and Kelly are involved, this time not of their own accord, after underwhelming performances at their current jobs. Neither will enter the season with anywhere near as much pressure as Brent Venables, who is just 22-17 at OU after replacing Riley, already racking up seven more losses than Riley had during his historic five-year tenure.

After a predictably quiet carousel this year, where the splashiest move came at a middling ACC program (Bill Belichick to North Carolina), the next one could be bonkers. Not all hot-seat situations are the same, as contracts and buyouts -- along with the administrators and donors making the decisions -- loom large.

Here's a look at whom to watch in the 2025 coaching cycle, sorted by tiers.

Jump to a tier:
Don't do that again | We want this to work
It'll cost us | Need progress| Don't backslide
Retirement watch | Group of 5

Don't do that again