No. 14 Washington | No. 16 USC | Top 25
No. 15: TCU
Last Season: 11-2 (7-2 Big 12)
The Horned Frogs trail only Washington among my surprise teams in 2016. They lacked that tough Gary Patterson defense last season, allowing 398.4 yards per game after pacing the conference with just 340.3 allowed over the previous three years. Last year's unit brings back eight starters, putting the defensive line, linebackers and secondary position groups all in my top 20. Though they lose QB Trevone Boykin, WR Josh Doctson and RB Aaron Green on offense, I do like the replacements. Kenny Hill, who transferred out of Texas A&M, where he threw for 2,649 yards in 2014, fits well with the offense, while Kyle Hicks figures to take over at running back after averaging 4.8 yards per carry last year. TCU is an underdog against only Oklahoma (+3), which it beat in 2014. If the Horned Frogs upset the Sooners again, they would have a clear path to the Big 12 title and a playoff berth, assuming they handle a depleted Baylor team in a toss-up game late in the year.
TCU's chances to win each game
09.03 vs. South Dakota State: 94.6%
09.10 vs. Arkansas: 56.2%
09.17 vs. Iowa State: 88.3%
09.23 @ SMU: 85.4%
10.01 vs. Oklahoma: 19.6%
10.08 @ Kansas: 88.1%
10.22 @ West Virginia: 41.7%
10.29 vs. Texas Tech: 71.9%
11.05 @ Baylor: 36.8%
11.19 vs. Oklahoma State: 39.8%
11.25 @ Texas: 39.0%
12.03 vs. Kansas State: 80.7%
Don't sleep on these Horned Frogs. Experienced defense, lots of offensive weapons, favorable schedule, supremely well-coached. All they need is the best version of Kenny Hill to lead the charge. If they can beat Oklahoma on Oct. 1, an 11-1 season and a playoff bid are attainable. -- Max Olson
The pieces are in place on both sides of the ball for the Horned Frogs to challenge in the Big 12. One of those is transfer QB Hill, who will be consistent enough for TCU to finish 9-3. -- Jake Trotter
No. 14 Washington | No. 16 USC | Top 25
