2023 college football outlook: Big 12 at a glance

The Big 12 has become known for wide-open offense, thrilling finishes and an all-around good time. This season should be no different.

Then there's the added attraction of the conference revolving door, with four new members -- Houston, Cincinnati, BYU and UCF -- coming in, before league stalwarts Texas and Oklahoma leave at the end of the season and four more newbies -- Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State and Utah -- join the fun.

But we'll set those logistics aside and focus on what we're looking forward to on the field over the next few months. Bill Connelly and Dave Wilson offer their insight on the Big 12's top transfers, instant-impact freshmen and must-see September games, plus their power rankings and picks for MVP, sleeper team and the conference championship.

Three transfers to know

QB Alan Bowman, Oklahoma State: Bowman threw for 5,329 yards in parts of three injury-plagued seasons at Texas Tech, then rode the bench at Michigan for two years. Mike Gundy has to hope he's got some magic left. -- Bill Connelly

RB Treshaun Ward, Kansas State: KSU needs a Deuce Vaughn replacement, and Ward, a former Florida State speedster, has massive potential. -- Connelly

QB Donovan Smith, Houston: Like Bowman, Smith was in and out of the lineup at Texas Tech, and he's got the play-making instincts to make Houston's first Big 12 offense awfully entertaining. -- Connelly

Three positions to fill

Baylor OL: Last year's offense, and notably quarterback Blake Shapen, struggled with O-line issues and the Bears feature an NFL-style offense that likes to pound the ball. -- Dave Wilson

Kansas State WR: Malik Knowles, Kade Warner and excellent pass-catching running back Deuce Vaughn are all gone, and Phillip Brooks and a host of newcomers have a high standard to meet. -- Wilson

Oklahoma WR: Six Sooners caught more than 10 passes last season, and four are gone. Jalil Farooq and others have a world of potential, but it's still mostly potential heading into 2023. -- Connelly

Three instant-impact freshmen

RB Cedric Baxter, Texas: A top-30 prospect, Baxter has the makeup to become a star; he also has the opportunity, with last year's top two Texas rushers gone. -- Connelly

QB J.J. Kohl, Iowa State: With Hunter Dekkers' status uncertain at best, the four-star, in-state prospect will have a prime opportunity to do damage early in his career. -- Connelly

WR Mikal Harrison-Pilot, Houston: The jewel of Dana Holgorsen's first Big 12 class at Houston, Harrison-Pilot was a three-sport star in high school and could quickly find a niche in the Coogs' receiving corps. -- Connelly

Three must-see September games

Texas at Alabama, Sept. 9: The importance of this one probably goes without saying, yeah? -- Connelly

Oregon at Texas Tech, Sept. 9: Texas Tech has built quite a bit of buzz with the arrival of the charismatic Joey McGuire and a rousing 2022 campaign, and this game is a massive opportunity to bump that buzz up a couple more notches. -- Connelly

Texas at Baylor, Sept. 23: Is Baylor ready to jump back into the conference title conversation? Is Texas going to live up to preseason hype this time? One of the first conference games of the season is also one of the biggest. -- Connelly

MVP pick

Wilson: QB Quinn Ewers, Texas

Ewers showed last year that the Longhorns are as good as he can be. If all the offseason talk is for real and he has turned a corner, he'll take Texas to that elusive conference championship.

Connelly: QB Dillon Gabriel, Oklahoma

His value was proved when he missed time last season and the offense completely collapsed. If he stays in the lineup and finds a rapport with a couple of new receiving options, he should lead a pretty solid bounce-back campaign in Norman.

On the hot seat

Wilson: Neal Brown, West Virginia; Dana Holgorsen, Houston

Brown's Mountaineers closed strong last season with wins over Oklahoma and Oklahoma State in their last three games, but Brown is 22-25 at West Virginia and his athletic director was forced out last season. Holgorsen has a much longer runway and insists he's not on the hot seat, but Houston finally landed a coveted spot in the Big 12 and won't wait long to try to take advantage.

Connelly: Brown

Brown has to start atop the list. He's been good at doing just enough to save himself, but that's going to get more and more difficult without some sort of actual surge.

Sleeper team

Connelly: Oklahoma State

The Cowboys were afterthoughts in the preseason media poll, and they'll need Alan Bowman to stay healthy and thrive, but their line play should be rock solid, and they've got more talent at linebacker and in the skill corps than people realize. They're only a couple of breaks away from a bounce-back season.

Wilson: Texas Tech

The Red Raiders return 10 starters on offense after a season in which they beat Texas, Oklahoma, took TCU to the wire and won a bowl game against Ole Miss. Offensive coordinator Zach Kittley and quarterback Tyler Shough are a strong combo and with a year of experience, they'll be even better.

Conference title game

Wilson: Texas 41, Texas Tech 35

Texas wins in one fun, final shootout.

Connelly: Texas 42, Oklahoma 28

I wish I had a more fun answer, but Texas and OU each make the title game in their final Big 12 seasons, and Texas takes it.