Ohio State began Friday as a consensus 6-point favorite over Texas in the Capital One Cotton Bowl, a spread much larger than what was expected.
Sportsbooks had Ohio State as only a 1.5-point favorite over Texas in early lines posted last week before the semifinal matchup was set. But after the Longhorns squeaked past Arizona State in overtime and the Buckeyes blew out Oregon in the quarterfinals, oddsmakers knew they had to adjust the line on the Cotton Bowl (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN).
"Texas just doesn't impress us, and Ohio State looks like a runaway freight train now," John Murray, a veteran Las Vegas bookmaker with the Westgate SuperBook, told ESPN this week.
Caesars Sportsbook opened with Ohio State as 5.5-point favorites over Texas after the semifinal matchup was finalized and took immediate action from bettors on the Buckeyes, despite the line being four points higher than it had been in previous days at some sportsbooks.
The Buckeyes entered the playoffs after a stunning upset loss to Michigan in the final week of the regular season. Ohio State was a 20.5-point favorite over the Wolverines. Since 1998, in the BCS/College Football Playoff era, only two teams -- 2008 Florida and 2016 Clemson -- have lost as 20-plus-point favorites during the regular season and rebounded to win the national championship, according to ESPN Research. The Buckeyes and Notre Dame have a chance to join that list this year.
The Fighting Irish, who lost to Northern Illinois as 28.5-point favorites early in the season, rallied past Penn State on Thursday in the Capital One Orange Bowl to advance to the championship game. Notre Dame faces the winner of Texas-Ohio State on Jan. 20 in Atlanta.
The betting public, which has been invested in Ohio State all season, is squarely behind the Buckeyes against Texas on Friday. Approximately 72% of the bets placed -- and 82% of the money wagered -- on the Cotton Bowl at ESPN BET was on Ohio State as of Friday morning. At BetMGM, 28.2% of the money bet on the sportsbook's odds to win the national championship is on the Buckeyes, more than what has been wagered on Texas and Notre Dame combined.
Sportsbooks have the Buckeyes listed as around 8-point favorites over Notre Dame in a potential championship game showdown. Texas is a 3-point favorite over Notre Dame in the early lines.