Baylor president Linda Livingstone knows a little more about athletics than your average university leader. She was the chairperson of the Big 12 board of directors and played basketball at Oklahoma State, as did her husband Brad. Their daughter Shelby played volleyball at Rice and is an assistant volleyball coach at Baylor.
Still, she never imagined that, at this point in her career, she would be the person responsible for explaining her school's football coaching situation.
On Nov. 20, Mack Rhoades, who had been athletic director at Baylor since 2016, stepped down after going on personal leave a week before. The next day, Livingstone announced that the Bears would retain coach Dave Aranda despite their losing record, citing the instability in the athletics program and a desire to keep the players on Baylor's roster and in its incoming recruiting class. She also cited "financial stewardship" around the "extreme volatility in college athletics" since NIL, the transfer portal and revenue sharing have all impacted how programs operate.
Still, with Rhoades' departure, she found herself making the ultimate decision on whether or not to keep Aranda amid frustration and anger from fans. In 2021, Baylor went 12-2 and won a Big 12 championship, but since then, the Bears have gone 22-28 over four seasons.
Coaches' leashes are shorter than ever, and Aranda is bucking the trend by getting a seventh season. UCLA's DeShaun Foster and Oregon State's Trent Bray were both fired before their second seasons were over, and Michigan State's Jonathan Smith was fired at the end of his. LSU paid Brian Kelly $54 million to hit the road in the middle of his fourth season, then paid Lane Kiffin $13 million a year to replace him. Everyone wants everyone fired. And Livingstone has certainly heard that sentiment about her school's situation. So, in the hot seat Livingstone is offering a glimpse into the factors that schools are facing in this era when making coaching decisions.
"I am deeply empathetic to the angst and anger and frustration among many in our alumni and fan base, and I get that completely. We all -- including Coach Aranda and the players -- have been disappointed in the way this season has gone and would like to have seen it done differently," Livingstone told ESPN on Nov. 25, shortly after her announcement. "So this decision was not made lightly...I recognize that there's some angry folks out there and frustrated folks out there, but you also then have to balance that against the importance of stability and then, long-term, what's in the best interest."
The Bears lost their final two games to finish 5-7, their third losing season in four years, missed a bowl game and kept Aranda. But schools that have decided to move on haven't always found it easy to get a new coach. Penn State fired a successful coach and hasn't found a solution. Florida had to fight to land their man, as did Auburn and Arkansas. This was a messy year to try to hire a coach. Florida State (5-7 in Mike Norvell's 6th year), Maryland (4-8 in Mike Locksley's 7th season) and Wisconsin (4-8 in Luke Fickell's fourth year) all faced similar decisions and opted to bring their coaches back.
Baylor is not a large public university like those schools. It has just 14,000 students -- about half of the smallest enrollment of those three -- and a 45,000-seat stadium. With a smaller donor pool and less revenue, its challenges are magnified since the NIL era reoriented what it takes to be a powerhouse program. But the Bears' history of recent success under Art Briles (before a sexual assault scandal led to his ouster) and Matt Rhule, as well as their location in Central Texas proves they can challenge any program in the Big 12 when everything is working. And the fanbase wants things to start working again. Now.
"It does put us in a challenging situation," Livingstone said. "If you lose a recruiting class, if you lose a bunch of your existing players because you don't have an athletic director on board that can hire a new coach in a timely way, you've probably set up a new coach for a fairly difficult run. There's only one transfer portal now, in January. You do not have the benefit in a case like this to have a spring transfer portal like we've had in the past. So it's recognizing the frustration that many feel, but also saying what are we going to do to best set up our athletic program and our new athletic director for success."
Still, the move to keep Aranda at the helm didn't completely preserve the class. The Bears lost five commits between Saturday and Wednesday's signing day, including priority recruits who flipped to Texas (defensive linemen Jamarion Carlton), Michigan (defensive back Jamarion Vincent). They lost another to Rice (offensive lineman Marcus Page Jr.) on the eve of signing day and dropped from 38th to 57th in ESPN's recruiting rankings. The Bears were right behind Arkansas, Auburn and Kentucky, who all made coaching changes, but one ahead of Wisconsin. The 12-man signing class reignited the fans' ire around Baylor's lack of movement.
"I am excited about this class and thankful for the young men who are choosing to be a part of the Baylor Family," Aranda said on Wednesday. "These young men have stayed committed to Baylor, which shows their character and genuine belief in what we are building here. We are not done adding newcomers for 2026. We feel that this class, plus those we will continue to add, will help us to compete at the level we expect."
Early on, Aranda admits he was reluctant to embrace the transactional nature of NIL, but once the Bears went all-in, they had success with big-name transfers like Michael Trigg, a finalist for this year's Mackey Award as the best tight end in the country. It's a constant quandary now for schools: Pay the buyout for a whole staff and start over, or keep the money flowing toward the portal. Before the season, sources told ESPN's Pete Thamel that Aranda's buyout would be about $12 million. Florida made the calculation last season not to pay Billy Napier a $27 million buyout and instead invest that on players. Then, Napier was fired on Oct. 19 after a 3-4 start to the season. In 2021, then-Nebraska AD Trev Alberts, after four months on the job, retained Scott Frost after a 15-27 start to his Huskers career.
"There's not a lot of empirical data out there to suggest this will work, let's be honest," Alberts told the Omaha World-Herald. The next season, Frost was fired after a 1-2 start and a loss to Georgia Southern.
Baylor, faced with the same decision, now will have to augment its roster in the portal or Aranda could face the same fate next fall. After going 15-11 the past two seasons, Texas Tech, with megabooster Cody Campbell and the Matador Club collective leading the way, spent $28 million in NIL money to construct a revitalized roster. The 11-1 Red Raiders are No. 4 in this week's College Football Playoff ranking. Not every school can make such big commitments.
"We do know that the world of college athletics has gotten so volatile and unstable because we still don't have the consistency and the infrastructure around NIL and the transfer portal and everything even after the house settlement. So it causes just a lot of turmoil in the system. And then I think it causes fans to have a great deal of angst as well when they see teams that are investing a ton into their programs doing well. There's other teams that are investing a lot in their programs that aren't doing well," Livingstone said. "I just think that we've gotten less and less patient with the progress that coaches and teams can make, and frankly the ways in which they've had to adapt in the new world that we're in. Stability in the midst of volatility is one of the messages we're trying to send and believe is important for us right now given our unique circumstances."
She said keeping a coach in place amid such turmoil while they find someone to search for new sources of revenue to help Baylor get to those same positions is important. Wisconsin saved $25 million on a buyout of Fickell, who's 16-21 in three seasons, and has promised to invest more in the program. After going 19-30 in the past four seasons, Virginia Tech is set to invest $229 million in football over the next four years.
"If you're going to invest $200 million in your athletic program, that's probably not going to come out of your operating budget. You're going to have to go out and find external sources of funds, whether that's sponsorships, donations, or some other avenue to invest that much more in your athletic program," Livingstone said. "So again, it's one of the things we've got to look at now. We have $20.5 million that wasn't in our budget a year ago to help cover NIL. So you had to do a lot of restructuring of the budget to get there, which means you're not doing things you used to be doing in the program. Some of those things you can live without, some of them you would prefer not to live without, and you want to continue to support your other sports at a high level."
Finding someone to fill Rhoades' chair who can make that happen is the key. It's not sustainable, Livingstone said, to keep funneling money from the school's budget to cover these expenses.
"We have to really work with our donors to step up. We have to work with sponsorships, we have to work on companies that will walk beside us for NIL sponsorships," Livingstone said. "That's going to be a really big focus for a new athletic director. ... That's what many, many institutions are looking at right now. How do we supplement and grow financial support for athletics in a way that's different than we've done it in the past that doesn't put as much burden on our institutions?"
Aranda has made wholesale changes to his staff since arriving in Waco. He's dismissed two offensive coordinators (Larry Fedora and Jeff Grimes) before finding Jake Spavital, whose offense helped lead last year's turnaround from a 2-4 start to an 8-4 finish. He had two defensive coordinators (Ron Roberts and Matt Powledge), before taking over the defensive play-calling before the 2024 season. After a dismal 2025, when the Bears finished 5-7 and had the 122nd-ranked defensive unit, giving up 32.6 points per game, he'll need to find some answers.
Aranda is beloved among Baylor staff. He is cerebral, often described as "unique." He quotes the Berenstain Bears and uses Star Wars metaphors for his team. He's a rare coach who speaks honestly, openly and thoughtfully in public. When asked in 2024 why the Bears' recruiting was on the upswing, he replied, "We're paying players."
But in the end, his job is to win football games. And Livingstone said she understands that. But she also believes as much as he has adapted, he's still capable of doing so. That, she said, is why she thinks now is the time to hold on amid all of the other changes.
"Dave is a learner and he's a listener, and he's always been open from my perspective to doing things differently and to learning along the way. So I have confidence that he'll work really well with a new athletic director to determine those things that need to be done before next year," Livingstone said. "So that's what we're going to focus on... I'm not the football guru here, so I'm not going to be the one to predict or say what they should or shouldn't be doing, but I have great confidence that a new athletic director working with Dave will do everything they can to put in place all the right things to help them to be successful next year."