The 2009 FCS championship game pitted Bobby Hauck's top-ranked Montana Grizzlies, six-time finalists (and two-time champions) over the previous 15 seasons, against Andy Talley's second-seeded Villanova Wildcats. Montana took a 14-3 lead, but Villanova seized control with a 20-0 run and two touchdowns from MVP Matt Szczur. Montana scored late but couldn't recover a late onside kick, and a first-down run by Szczur sealed Villanova's first national title.
Within two years of Szczur's heroics, North Dakota State had made its move. The Bison would win 10 FCS titles between 2011 and '24, only briefly ceding control to James Madison (2016), Sam Houston (spring 2021) and South Dakota State (2023-24). And through 12.9 games in 2025, it looked like the Bison were all but sure to win an 11th ring. They had outscored their first 12 opponents by an average of 46-12, and they led Illinois State 28-14 with three minutes left in the second round.
A funny thing happened next: ISU's Tommy Rittenhouse threw a short touchdown pass to Daniel Sobkowicz, then Jake Anderson recovered a fumble by NDSU's Cole Payton. Rittenhouse found Sobkowicz for another score, and head coach Brock Spack, in the job since 2009, rolled the dice with a minute left. Rittenhouse scrambled right and found Scotty Presson Jr. open for the two-point conversion and a sudden 29-28 lead. NDSU's last-minute drive stalled out near midfield, and the Cardinals had scored one of the most shocking upsets in FCS history.
SDSU lost, too. And JMU and Sam Houston have long since left for FBS. Instead of a four-week NDSU coronation, we now have the most wide-open FCS playoffs in almost two decades.
No. 7 Stephen F. Austin at No. 2 Montana State (9 p.m., ESPN)
No. 12 Villanova at No. 4 Tarleton State (noon, ESPN)
No. 11 South Dakota at No. 3 Montana (3:30 p.m., ABC)
Illinois State at No. 8 UC Davis (5 p.m., ESPN+)
Montana State, which lost title games to NDSU in both 2024 and 2021, now has a golden opportunity. So does Hauck's Montana, which fell to SDSU by 20 points in the 2024 finals. Villanova, now led by Talley's successor, Mark Ferrante, is back in contention, as are ISU and South Dakota, good Missouri Valley programs typically overshadowed by the heavyweights. UC Davis, led by a dynamite offense, is looking for its first semifinal in 23 seasons in FCS. Stephen F. Austin had won one playoff game in 30 years before last week's victory over Abilene Christian; opportunity is presenting itself for the Lumberjacks, too.
The favorite in the field? A newcomer.
Tarleton State joined FCS in 2021, but the Texans are 12-1 and beat Army early in the season. Can the newcomers hold their nerve? Will the old hands, long waiting their turn, take advantage of an incredible opportunity? The biggest quarterfinal round in years awaits.
No. 7 Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks at No. 2 Montana State Bobcats
Playoff results to date: SFA def. No. 10 Abilene Christian 41-34; MSU def. Yale 21-13
Offensive SP+ rankings: MSU seventh, SFA 19th
Defensive SP+ rankings: SFA third, MSU sixth
For almost 12 months, Brent Vigen and Montana State have had to stew over a missed opportunity. The Bobcats were 15-0 when they faced a flawed-on-paper North Dakota State team in last year's FCS championship game. But the Bison played a perfect first half and took a 21-3 lead into halftime. MSU rallied, closing the gap to three points on three occasions, but NDSU responded each time, and time ran out on the Bobcats.
This time around, redemption won't even require beating the Bison. This MSU team isn't as all-around fantastic as last year's, but the Bobcats still have the customary top-10 run game -- Julius Davis and Adam Jones have combined for 1,750 yards (6.3 per carry) and 19 touchdowns -- and with 2,437 passing yards, a 72% completion rate and 11 rushing touchdowns, quarterback Justin Lamson has done a solid impression of last year's dual-threat star, Tommy Mellott. Taco Dowler, a 2024 star, is also still around to catch the occasional deep ball and serve as one of the scariest punt returners in the game.
MSU rarely moves backward, but Stephen F. Austin will challenge that. The Lumberjacks average an FCS-best 8.8 tackles for loss per game, led by Ky Thomas and Aaron Austin (combined: 22 TFLs, 12.5 sacks, 29 hurries), who are two of five first-team All-Southland picks on this defense; not even including 40 sacks, the Lumberjacks are allowing just 3.5 yards per carry, too.
Defense has driven the Jacks' success, but both units have done their part. SFA has outscored opponents by an average of 41-15 during an 11-game winning streak, getting more than enough from former Montana quarterback Sam Vidlak (2,447 yards, 21 TDs), receiver Kylon Harris (983 yards, 10 TDs) and running back Jerrell Wimbley (940 yards, 9 TDs). And in Bugs Mortimer, with four punt return scores, the Lumberjacks might have an even scarier returner than Dowler.
MSU's defense is the best SFA has faced. Since starting with losses to Oregon and a full-strength South Dakota State, the Bobcats have allowed just 11.8 points per game. End Kenneth Eiden IV (11 TFLs, 5.5 sacks) provides the proper pass-rushing oomph, and ball hawk Caden Dowler (5 INTs, 4 breakups, 5.5 TFLs) teleports throughout the field.
Draft Kings projection: Montana 32.0, SFA 19.5 (MSU -12.5, over/under 51.5)
SP+ projection: Montana State 28.5, SFA 22.9
No. 11 South Dakota Coyotes at No. 3 Montana Grizzlies
Playoff results to date: South Dakota def. Drake 38-17, def. No. 6 Mercer 47-0; Montana def. No. 14 South Dakota State 50-29
Offensive SP+ rankings: Montana second, South Dakota 33rd
Defensive SP+ rankings: South Dakota 11th, Montana 36th
It takes a while to scale the ladder in the Missouri Valley. South Dakota lost 20 of 23 to North Dakota, then lost four of seven, and now the Coyotes have won three straight. They lost 10 straight to SDSU, but now they've split the past six. They lost 10 of 11 against NDSU, and now they've split the past four. And now they're the last Dakota team standing.
Standing in the way of Yotes is yet another heavyweight. Montana has been waiting for this opportunity for a while -- in the past 10 years, it has lost only one playoff game to someone other than NDSU, SDSU or James Madison. Now, thanks in part to the Grizzlies' thumping of SDSU last week, none of them are left.
Montana has the best remaining offense in the field. Between Keali'i Ah Yat's passing (3,514 yards, 29 TDs) and Big Sky Offensive Player of the Year Eli Gillman's rushing (1,396 yards, 21 TDs), the Grizzlies are happy to lean into whatever you can't stop. Receiver Michael Wortham is a genuine all-purpose threat, too, with eight receiving touchdowns, six rushing touchdowns and a 26.4-yard kick return average. The defense is not one of Montana's best -- allowing 23.9 points per game and 5.8 yards per play -- but it still forced mistakes in the form of 20 interceptions (TJ Rausch and Peyton Wing each have three) and 30 sacks (five Grizzlies, including Wing, have at least three).
South Dakota barely scraped out a playoff bid, winning its last three games by a total of 14 points, but the Yotes are thriving now that they're here. After an easy first-round win over Drake, they embarrassed No. 6 Mercer on the road. They scored on six of their first seven drives, picked off four passes and outgained the Bears 550-277. All-conference running back L.J. Phillips Jr. (1,847 yards, 18 TDs) and quarterback Aidan Bouman (2,645 yards, 24 TDs) assure that the Yotes can keep up in a likely track meet, but any time the defense plays like it did last week, South Dakota will probably win. Then again, Montana hasn't lost a home playoff game since 2013.
Draft Kings projection: Montana 34.0, South Dakota 25.5 (Montana -8.5, over/under 59.5)
SP+ projection: Montana 33.6, South Dakota 23.6
No. 12 Villanova Wildcats at No. 4 Tarleton State Texans
Playoff results to date: Villanova def. Harvard 52-7, def. No. 5 Lehigh 14-7; TSU def. North Dakota 31-13
Offensive SP+ rankings: TSU third, Villanova 25th
Defensive SP+ rankings: Villanova eighth, TSU 10th
To date, Tarleton State's current ambition levels have moved too quickly for the Texans to actually accomplish much. The Texans emerged as a potential Division II power in the late 2010s, dropping a heartbreaker at Minnesota State in the 2018 quarterfinals, but before they could conquer that level, they were off to the FCS. And by the time they won their first FCS playoff game last season, rumors of their FBS ambitions had already begun to surface.
For now, however, the team that has won six total NCAA playoff games at any level is your FCS title favorite, per SP+. TSU manhandled a solid North Dakota team last week, and now it takes on the most recent remaining champion in the field.
Villanova has allowed 14 combined points in two playoff games and only 13.2 points per game since the start of October. Linebacker Shane Hartzell (15 TFLs, 8 sacks, 8 hurries) is the star, but 13 Wildcats have taken part in at least one sack, and eight have picked off at least one pass. That diversity could be key to stopping a TSU attack that can either run through you or pass over you. Quarterback Victor Gabalis has averaged 311.5 passing yards and 16.6 yards per completion over his past four games, and Hawaii transfer Tylan Hines, injured for most of the season, has rushed for 335 yards in his past two. TSU's offense leads the FCS at 44.1 points per game and sure seems to be improving at the moment.
Assuming VU actually allows points for once, the offense will have to carry more weight. Quarterback Pat McQuaide and receiver Luke Colella have solid upside, and running back Ja'briel Mace averages 7.4 yards over a few carries per game. (Stop me if you've heard this before, but Mace is also a great return man; special teams will likely play a huge role in these quarterfinals.) The Wildcats boast a pair of All-CAA linemen in tackle Stephane Voltaire and guard Temi Ajirotutu, but TSU's defensive front, led by edge rusher Angelo Anderson (9.5 sacks, five forced fumbles), is active.
Villanova's biggest strength might be pure control -- it has turned the ball over just five times all year -- but it will need to match upside with upside in Stephenville.
Draft Kings projection: TSU 33.0, Villanova 21.5 (TSU -11.5, over/under 54.5)
SP+ projection: TSU 33.7, Villanova 21.4
Illinois State Redbirds at No. 8 UC Davis Aggies
Playoff results to date: ISU def. No. 16 Southeastern Louisiana 21-3, def. No. 1 NDSU 29-28; UCD def. No. 9 Rhode Island 47-26
Offensive SP+ rankings: UCD eighth, ISU 16th
Defensive SP+ rankings: ISU 31st, UCD 72nd
Although many quarterfinalists are chasing past glory, both ISU and UC Davis are chasing near glory. UCD's shining football moment came with a win over North Dakota State and a finals appearance in the 1982 Division II playoffs, but the Aggies lost to what is now Texas State. Brock Spack's ISU Redbirds, meanwhile, came achingly close to an FCS title in 2014, taking a late lead over NDSU before giving up a late touchdown to Carson Wentz. They haven't made it past the quarterfinals since.
The ISU defense has surged in the playoffs; the Redbirds allowed just three points against Southeastern Louisiana in the first round, and they erased a dominant NDSU attack last week, allowing just 179 yards, 101 after the Bison's first snap. NDSU scored 28 points only because of a pick-six, a punt return score and a 4-yard TD drive set up by another pick. ISU managed to somehow win in the FargoDome despite throwing five interceptions.
Linemen Garret Steffen and Jake Anderson combined for 4.5 TFLs in Fargo, and linebacker Tye Niekamp was named the Missouri Valley Defensive Player of the Year. There's firepower here, and that's good because the UCD offense has a lot of firepower to match. Quarterback Caden Pinnick (2,804 passing yards, 29 TDs) is the Big Sky's Freshman of the Year, receiver Samuel Gbatu Jr. has topped 100 yards in six of his past seven games, and running back Jordan Fisher had a huge 140-yard performance in last week's delightful track-meet win over Rhode Island.
The Aggies' defense is the shakiest of any quarterfinalist. They have solid individual playmakers -- end Jacob Psyk and linebacker Sam Goligoski have combined for 25 TFLs and 16 sacks (Psyk has blocked two kicks, too) -- but they allowed at least 38 points in all three losses and at least 24 in five wins. ISU receivers Daniel Sobkowicz and big-play freshman Luke Mailander should find open space, as could running back Victor Dawson, who's coming off a 137-yard performance at NDSU. As long as Tommy Rittenhouse doesn't try to throw five picks again, the Redbirds can keep up in a track meet.
UC Davis walloped ISU 42-10 in last year's second round. Incredibly, it was ISU's only road loss in the past two years; can the Redbirds keep their revenge streak going?
Draft Kings projection: UC Davis 31.0, ISU 28.5 (UCD -2.5, over/under 59.5)
SP+ projection: UC Davis 30.5, ISU 30.3