It was hyped as the final before the final. At a ground that many believe should have been hosting the final anyway. India had won seven out of seven, South Africa had won six out of seven. With Australia starting slowly, and with Pakistan not turning up at all, this was supposed to be the match of the league stages. Eden Gardens was all decked up and fully packed. This was the biggest occasion outside India vs Pakistan and the knockouts.
Marco Jansen had been South Africa's highest, and the tournament's third-highest, wicket-taker. All his 16 wickets had come with the new ball: in the powerplay. He was supposed to set the tone once India decided to bat first. What followed was an extremely inaccurate first spell of 2-0-27-0 during which he bowled five wides, one of which went to the boundary too. The tone was set but not in the manner South Africa wanted it set.
At his best, Jansen is a menacing quick who has pace, height (thus bounce) and movement both in the air and off the pitch. When he is good, he is irresistible, but it is believed that when he is bad he is awful. In April 2022, he went from 3 for 25 at Brabourne Stadium to 0 for 63 three days later at Wankhede Stadium a few hundred metres north of it. In the process, failing to defend 22 in the last over, raising question marks over his "mental strength". Something that got reinforced during that "big match" against India in the ODI World Cup at Eden Gardens.
Data does back the instinct, though. Not mental strength because that is for experts in psychology and psychiatry to speak about but about the wild fluctuations in Jansen's returns. ESPNcricinfo's Shiva Jayaraman worked out numbers that are instructive. A total of 132 bowlers have bowled 600 or more balls in T20s since the start of 2023. Among them Jansen is the only one to have gone at under seven an over in more than 30% of his bowling allotments and at over 10 an over in more than 30% of spells: 30.43% under seven an over and 32.6% at over 10 an over. "Big variance on either side," Jayaraman says.
There is more than mental strength to it, though. Mental strength is nothing but your technique, physical fitness and tactical sharpness put together. Just after Jansen led South Africa into their first men's World Cup final in any format, I asked Jansen to revisit that Eden Gardens nightmare and what was going through his mind that day.
"Ja I think a lot of things came into it," Jansen said. "One of them probably being a long time away from home and then also physically being drained because 50-over cricket and playing it in India, I am sure everyone that played at World Cup was physically tested, especially at the back end of that tournament. India's known for heat and for humidity at certain places. So I think it was a mixture of both.
"I just think it was one of those days where it's not your day. You have those days and at the end of that game I realised that, 'okay, cool, today it probably wasn't my day where nothing was going my way,' if it makes sense."
Flower also says it will hold them in good stead if South Africa produce their best in the final
That is the kind of an insight active sportspeople rarely share. That possibly his conditioning wasn't at its peak for this particular match.
The T20 World Cup 2024 is not too dissimilar in terms of humidity and the off-field fatigue. Apart from the short turnaround between matches, South Africa have not been on a single flight that has left on time. They spent one whole night at an airport in Florida along with Sri Lanka and Ireland teams. Before the final they endured a seven-hour delay at the Trinidad airport.
Then again, Jansen is an elite professional, and has learnt lessons from the past. "It's almost similar here also with the humidity and the heat," he said. "I just think personally for me, I've been really doing well in terms of my nutrition and what I eat and when I eat it and what I drink. I've made conscious effort to drink a lot of water, especially on off days and travel days. And then on game day I just try and switch my physical fatigue off, if it makes sense. I try and not think about it, which I think I've done pretty well."
Unbeaten so far, South Africa have ridden on the starts Jansen has given them. He has conceded at just over a run a ball even though the wickets column reads only six, three of them in the semi-final against Afghanistan. In the final, he will be up against what has proved to be the best batting order of this tournament, adjusting superbly to the varied conditions without compromising on their attacking intent. Jansen is going to be extremely important because teams have used left-arm pace to try to shut off the Indian batters, especially Rohit Sharma, who has found red-hot form and that little bit of luck you need in T20s just at the right time.
These two teams are unbeaten in the tournament. This is the big final likely to be played in the most balanced of conditions of the tournament. Rohit will be looking to take Jansen down like he did Mitchell Starc, another tall left-arm quick. For two teams that have lived with the popular tag of not doing well in the "matches that matter", the tone that Jansen sets will be crucial.
The difference here, though, is Jansen is wiser than he was last year, is better conditioned, and South Africa are a more rounded team that has potential to recover from a bad day for one individual. Then again, India are utilising their resources better and not relying on any one batter to take it upon himself to get them a total. No wonder this is going to be the showpiece contest in the showpiece match of the year so far.