With just 20 Tests to go in the current World Test Championship (WTC) cycle, five teams have a shot at making the final. Here is a look at the qualification prospects of each team.
India
Percent: 62.82, matches remaining: New Zealand (one home) and Australia (five away)
Two shocking defeats against New Zealand means that India have left themselves with plenty to do to make a third consecutive WTC final, although they are still hanging on to the top spot currently with a slender lead over Australia. To be certain of a place in the top two in this cycle, India need to win the last Test of the ongoing series against New Zealand - in Mumbai - and then beat Australia 3-2. That will take them to 64.04% points (assuming they don't lose any points due to slow over rates).
Even if Australia win 2-0 in Sri Lanka, they can still only get to 60.53% with two wins against India, while New Zealand will end up at 57.14% if they lose in Mumbai and then beat England 3-0 at home. In that case, South Africa will be the only team which can top India. A 2-2 series result in Australia will leave India on 60.53% in comparison to Australia's 62.28% (assuming India win in Mumbai, and Australia beat Sri Lanka 2-0).
If India lose in Mumbai, New Zealand can finish on 64.29%, but only with a 3-0 result against England. Then India will need four wins and a draw in Australia to make sure of a place in the final, regardless of other results.
However, India can still finish in the top two with fewer wins if the other teams in contention don't maximise their points. For example, if New Zealand lose in Mumbai and beat England 2-0, they will only get to 52.38%; if South Africa lose one of their five remaining Tests, they will finish on 61.11%; and if Australia beat India 3-2 but draw 1-1 in Sri Lanka, they will finish on 60.53%.
New Zealand
Percent: 50.00, matches remaining: India (one away) and England (three home)
At the start of the series in India, it seemed highly improbable that New Zealand would still be in contention for a place in the final. But their stunning wins after two out of the three Tests have given them a chance to dream. If they win each of their four remaining Tests, they will finish on 64.29%. It won't ensure qualification, but it will certainly keep them in the mix. If they lose one of those Tests, though, their percentage will drop to 57.14%.
South Africa
Percent: 47.62, matches remaining: Bangladesh (one away), Sri Lanka (two home) and Pakistan (two home)
If South Africa win each of their five remaining Tests, they will finish with 69.44%, which will surely be enough for qualification, as only one out of India or Australia can go past that number. Four wins and a draw will leave South Africa with 63.89%, while four wins and a defeat will lower the percentage marginally to 61.11%, which could still give them a chance if other results go their way. They have a favourable schedule, though, with home Tests to come against Sri Lanka and Pakistan, after the second Test of their ongoing series against Bangladesh.
Australia
Percent: 62.50, matches remaining: India (five home) and Sri Lanka (two away)
India's defeats against New Zealand have improved Australia's chances of making it to the final. A 3-2 series win against India and a 1-0 victory in Sri Lanka will take them to 62.28%, ensuring they finish ahead of India. New Zealand can still surpass that, but only if they win each of their remaining games. If New Zealand slip up, then South Africa is the only team which can go past Australia. To ensure qualification without depending on other results, Australia need five wins from their seven remaining matches.
Sri Lanka
Percent: 55.56, matches remaining: SA (two away) and Australia (two home)
With a full 24 points gained from their last two Tests, Sri Lanka have made a strong push towards a top-two finish in this WTC cycle. Their four remaining Tests are against two opponents who are also contenders for the final. If they win each of those matches and take home 48 more points, they will finish on 69.23% and assure themselves of a place in the final regardless of other results. If they lose one and win three, they will end up at 61.54%, which will still leave them with a chance of qualifying, depending on other results.
England
Percent: 40.79, matches remaining: New Zealand (three away)
The two defeats in Pakistan means that England can finish with a maximum of 48.86% even if they beat New Zealand 3-0 in their last series of the current cycle. That won't be enough for a place in the final.
Pakistan
Percent: 33.33, matches remaining: South Africa (two away) and West Indies (two home)
Pakistan's home form has shown some revival, but it is too late to make a difference in this cycle. Even if they win each of their last four Tests, they can only finish on 52.38%, with no chance of making it to the final.
Bangladesh
Percent: 30.56, matches remaining: South Africa (one home) and West Indies (two away)
The three defeats in their last three Tests against India and South Africa have hurt Bangladesh badly - from having 45.83% points at one stage, they have dropped to 30.56% now. Even if they win each of their three remaining Tests, they will only improve to 47.92%, which won't be enough for a place in the top two.
West Indies
Percent: 18.52, series remaining: Bangladesh (two home) and Pakistan (two away)
West Indies have already played four series and have only scored 20 points out of a possible 108. Even if they win their last four Tests, they can only finish on 43.59%, and are hence out of the race for a spot in the WTC final.