We're betting to win.
And if I'm the one doing the betting, there are two keys I need to have to have the confidence to place the wager:
A model-backed approach, or at the very least a quantitative-based angle. But almost all of the bets in this column will be based on the outputs of models built by me, or occasionally my colleagues at ESPN Analytics.
A less efficient market. NFL sides and totals are voluminous markets, and betting against those mainstream numbers is like wagering on All-Madden mode. It's why I often look to props (especially on defense!) and alternate lines. Less attention means less efficient markets, and therefore more opportunities to find value.
Those two criteria make up the crux of this weekly column. Each week I'll post bets from our models in mostly lower-visibility categories with the simple goal of coming out ahead. We'll be looking at odds all across the spectrum, from -1000 to 100-1s -- as far as I'm concerned, value is value no matter the price.
One promise I'll make: we'll track the results -- by bet category -- no matter what. It's sort of scary, because losing is of course very much in the cards. But I also think it's really important. And it's what what I did a year ago in my similar "last-minute bets" column.
Last season it finished with a 6.2% ROI on 466 bets. I can't guarantee success just based off that -- it will be harder this year, especially if there are no sack props (my most profitable category) available, as there aren't currently in Week 1 -- but we'll post how we've performed, win or lose.
To continue the theme of transparency, here are the ground rules I'm setting:
For simplicity, I am flat-betting one unit per bet regardless of odds.
The story will be filed on Thursdays and posted shortly thereafter. I'll check the lines right before I file, and once I do I consider them locked, no matter if they move between then and kickoff, regardless which direction.
I can add bets later. So if a prop isn't offered on Thursday, but is added on Friday that I show value for, I can file that bet and it will be posted shortly thereafter, with a note indicating which day it was added. Same odds movement rules apply.
I'll treat no action bets as pushes.
All odds will be via ESPN BET. Of course, my advice to you is to always find the best line you can.
With all the housekeeping out of the way, let's talk football, shall we? It's time for some Week 1 bets.