We're betting to win.
And if I'm the one doing the betting, there are two keys I need to have the confidence to place the wager:
A model-backed approach, or at the very least a quantitative-based angle. But almost all the bets in this column will be based on the outputs of models built by me, or occasionally my colleagues at ESPN Analytics.
A less efficient market. NFL sides and totals are voluminous markets, and betting against those mainstream numbers is like wagering on All-Madden mode. It's why I often look to props (especially on defense!) and alternate lines. Less attention means less efficient markets and therefore more opportunities to find value.
Those two criteria make up the crux of this weekly column, though occasionally I'll recommend bets that satisfy one criterion or the other. Each week I'll post bets from our models in mostly lower-visibility categories with the simple goal of coming out ahead. We'll be looking at odds all across the spectrum, from -1000 to 100-1 -- as far as I'm concerned, value is value no matter the price.
Results for this season can be found at the bottom of this story.
Let's dive into Week 3.