Perhaps the most exciting basketball player in the world right now is Iowa guard Caitlin Clark. Last year, she burst to a level of national prominence rarely before seen by a college athlete thanks to a March in which she helped the Hawkeyes reach the national title game while averaging 31.2 points in the tournament.
This year, she's back and her Hawkeyes are a No. 1 seed. What can the Iowa star do for an encore? Can she get Iowa over the hump so that they're cutting down the nets? How many points will she score?
Luckily, you can bet Clark in myriad ways on ESPN BET so let's take a look at how you should do so:
Do not lay -2500 (Caitlin Clark to score 114-plus points in tournament) or -1000 (Clark to make 18-plus 3-point field goals in tournament)
Although it is most likely that Clark plays in enough games to do so, this is March after all. A surprising Round 2 or even Sweet 16 upset and Clark just won't have enough time on the court to eclipse those numbers. Please stay away from those wagers.
Clark breaking the all-time women's NCAA tournament assists record with 37-plus is a much more palatable price (-350), but it's still probably not a bet with a positive expected value
Clark averaged 8.9 assists this season, so it's likely that Iowa needs to win four games and make the Final Four for us to feel good about this bet. Iowa is +110 to win Regional 2. Why not just make that bet instead? You're getting a much better return on investment and a safety net in case Clark does more scoring than assisting.
The plus-money bets are where I suggest taking some shots -- like Clark from the logo
At +230, playing Clark to break the career tournament scoring record with 168-plus doesn't sound too bad. If Iowa makes it all the way back to the final, Clark would have to average just 28.0 points. If the Hawkeyes make it to only the Final Four, it's still a very reasonable 33.6 points per game to break the record. I can get with that, especially if you're a Clark or Iowa fan.
Clark making 10-plus 3-point shots in a game (+350) is probably the most fun bet of this bunch. Clark never made 10-plus threes in any game this season, but she did have 13 games with 16-plus attempts. That's all we need. This will be the most fun bet to sweat as you eagerly anticipate Clark pulling up from the logo every time she touches the ball.
Other thoughts
Most of these bets depend on how far Clark and the Hawkeyes make it in this tournament. Unfortunately, they didn't get the easiest draw. I'm not interested in playing the team as a favorite to get out of Regional 2. The committee did Iowa no favors in putting defending champion LSU in its bracket. The Hawkeyes could match up with Tigers in the Elite Eight, and if that's the case, there's a very real chance Clark's 2024 tournament run is limited to just four games.
We know the Hawkeyes will get at least one game as the No. 1 seed in Regional 2. They're 38.5-point favorites over 16-seed Holy Cross. Laying more than 35 points is just not something I'm interested in. The total, however, might be playable UNDER 153.5 (-115). The implied team total for Iowa is 96.5. Obviously, the sports books are expecting bettors to hammer the OVER in a game in which Clark and her team is involved. This line is probably inflated by a few points. I'd take the UNDER thinking the Hawkeyes get out to a big lead and hit cruise control in the second half.
Once they get past the 16-seed, their draw is pretty reasonable. Colorado, Kansas State or even Drake could be tough, but the game everyone wants to see in this regional would be the Iowa-LSU rematch in the Elite Eight. At this point, I'd rather bet on the defending champs than Clark's team. LSU seems to be peaking at just the right time.