An exciting Week 12 slate concludes with a key AFC tilt between the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers on "Monday Night Football" (8:30 ET, ESPN).
The tilt will mark the first meeting between coaches Jim and John Harbaugh since Super Bowl XLVII in 2013. John Harbaugh's Chargers enter Week 12 red-hot, winners of four straight games and fresh off a tightly contested victory over the Cincinnati Bengals in prime time.
Meanwhile, the Ravens saw their two-game winning streak come to an end at the hands of the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 11 but are still -155 to win the division at ESPN BET after the Browns upset Pittsburgh on Thursday night. The Ravens opened as 2.5-point favorites with the total set at 47.5.
While the AFC West race appears over with the Kansas City Chiefs atop the odds board, the Chargers are still fighting for positioning in the playoffs. Monday night's game could play an integral role with both Los Angeles (7-2) and Baltimore (7-3) fighting for playoff position.
Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
Game lines
Spread: Ravens (-2.5)
Moneyline: Ravens (-140), Chargers (+120)
Over/under: 50.5 points (over -115/under -105)
First-half spread: Ravens -0.5 (-110), Chargers +0.5 (-110)
First-half moneyline: Ravens (-140), Chargers (+110)
Ravens total points: 26.5 (over -110/under -120)
Chargers total points: 23.5 (over -125/under -105)
The props
Passing
Justin Herbert total passing yards: 249.5 (over -135/under +105)
Herbert total passing TDs: 1.5 (over -125/under -105)
Lamar Jackson total passing yards: 249.5 (over +115/under -145)
Jackson total passing TDs: 1.5 (over -120/under -110)
Rushing
Derrick Henry total rushing yards: 79.5 (over -135/under +105)
J.K. Dobbins total rushing yards: 44.5 (over -130/under even)
Jackson total rushing yards: 44.5 (over -110/under -120)
Gus Edwards total rushing yards: 24.5 (over even/under -130)
Herbert total rushing yards: 19.5 (over -110/under -120)
Receiving
Ladd McConkey total receiving yards: 69.5 (over -135/under +105)
Zay Flowers total receiving yards: 59.5 (over -115/under -115)
Quentin Johnston total receiving yards: 49.5 (over -105/under -125)
Rashod Bateman total receiving yards: 39.5 (over -105/under -125)
Will Dissly total receiving yards: 44.5 (over -105/under -125)
Mark Andrews total receiving yards: 29.5 (over -130/under even)
Isaiah Likely total receiving yards: 24.5 (over -130/under even)
Dobbins total receiving yards: 14.5 (over -110/under -120)
Eric Moody's picks
Best bet: Chargers +2.5
The Ravens' defense has struggled, especially against the pass, and managed just 16 points against the Steelers in Week 11. Meanwhile, the Chargers' defense allows the fewest points per game. The Ravens are 6-3 ATS on the road, but the Chargers' offense is clicking. They've scored 26-plus points in four straight games, leaning on Justin Herbert and the passing game. Los Angeles is also 4-0-1 ATS in its past five home games. Plus, the Ravens have dropped four of their past five November games as road favorites.
Best bet: Justin Herbert OVER 249.5 passing yards (-135)
This prop immediately caught my attention. Herbert has cleared this line in four of his past five games, averaging 274.2 passing yards during that stretch. Here's the kicker: No defense gives up more passing yards per game than the Ravens'. With playmakers like Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston, Herbert has everything he needs to take advantage of that weak secondary.
Best bet: Will Dissly OVER 4.5 receptions (+105)
Dissly has been the go-to guy in the Chargers' tight end rotation, running more routes than Tucker Fisk and Stone Smartt. He has hit this mark in three of his past five games, showing consistency when given the opportunity. Baltimore's secondary struggles are no secret -- they allow the ninth-most receptions and fourth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends this season. The Ravens' defense has relied on two-high coverage on about 43% of their snaps this season, leaving plenty of space underneath -- exactly where Dissly thrives. He's caught 16 of 19 targets for 143 yards against two-high coverage this season, the most receptions on the Chargers in that situation. This matchup sets up perfectly for him to capitalize on short-to-intermediate targets.
Best bet: Ladd McConkey OVER 5.5 receptions (+105)
McConkey, who primarily works from the slot, has emerged as Herbert's top target, leading the Chargers with 66 targets and 46 receptions. The Ravens' defense gives up the fifth-most receptions per game to wide receivers, and McConkey's precise route running makes him a perfect fit to exploit Baltimore's defense. He has caught 12 of 20 targets for 152 yards against two-high coverage this season, the most receiving yards on the Chargers in that situation. McConkey is well-positioned to clear this line in such a favorable matchup.
Betting trends
Courtesy ESPN Research
The Chargers are 8-2 ATS this season, tied for the best mark in the NFL this season (Steelers, Lions). They have covered four straight games, their longest streak since 2020-2021 (five).
The Chargers are 5-0 ATS this season at home. It's their longest home cover streak since 2007 (six straight). A cover this week would match their longest home ATS winning streak in the Super Bowl era (2007, 1992, 1971-1972).
Overs are 9-2 in Ravens games this season, the highest over rate in the NFL.
Lamar Jackson is 16-8 ATS in his career in prime-time games (19-5 straight up), including 9-4 ATS/SU on the road. Justin Herbert is 11-7 ATS in prime-time games.
Lamar Jackson is 28-14-2 ATS in his career on the road, including 23-8-1 ATS when not laying at least seven points.
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