In a tightly contested SEC conference, the No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs and No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide face off in what could be one of the biggest regular-season games of the 2024 college football season. With both teams looking to gain a signature win on their schedules, this year's Georgia-Alabama game, a rematch of last year's SEC championship game, is likely to hold significant College Football Playoff and national championship implications. The Bulldogs head to Tuscaloosa on Saturday as a slight one-point favorite over the Crimson Tide. The line opened at three early in the week but has ticked down each day and could be a pick' em before kickoff at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN+.
For Alabama, the matchup marks perhaps the first true test for new coach Kalen Deboer. If the current line holds, the Crimson Tide will be a home underdog for the first time since 2007, Nick Saban's first season. They have a Heisman candidate at quarterback in Jalen Milroe (+750 to win at ESPN BET) and plenty of weapons around him.
Meanwhile, Kirby Smart's team has a potential No. 1 draft pick under center in Carson Beck. While Georgia's previous matchup, a close 13-12 win over a stout Kentucky Wildcats team, might have been unexpected, the Bulldogs will be more than game for some revenge against the heated SEC foe.
Here is what you need to know to bet on this top-five ranked clash on Saturday night.
Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
The lines
Spread: Georgia (-1)
Money line: Georgia (-120), Alabama (Even)
Over/under: 50.5
First-half spread: Georgia -0.5 (+102), Alabama +0.5 (-125)
Georgia total points: O/U 24.5 (Even/-130)
Alabama total points: O/U 24.5 (-110/-120)
Pam's take on Georgia-Alabama
This Saturday marks the first non-neutral site matchup between Georgia and Alabama since 2020, with the Crimson Tide holding home-field advantage. While the Tide's offense has looked impressive, their opponents' defensive rankings (91st or worse in yards per play allowed) raise questions about the true strength of their attack.
Georgia's defense, ranked 4th in yards per game allowed, will present a formidable challenge to Alabama's offense. The Bulldogs have been particularly stout against the run, allowing only 3.07 yards per carry (27th in the country). This could force Alabama to rely more heavily on its passing game.
Jalen Milroe has shown efficiency with a 67% completion rate, but 27 of his 35 passes in his last game against Wisconsin came from within 0 to 9 yards. While Milroe excelled with his deep throw accuracy last season, he has only five touchdowns of 20-plus yards, and three were against a hampered Wisconsin team in Week 3.
Georgia has played a stronger schedule thus far this season which has prepared the Bulldogs for high-pressure situations and top-tier competition.
With Nick Saban gone, Kirby Smart, who previously held a 1-5 record against Saban, can approach this year's game with confidence and give Georgia an increased edge the team has lacked in previous encounters against Alabama.
Although I do lean toward Georgia covering, the lack of clarity about both teams' capabilities against top-tier competition makes this a risky proposition. For me, this is a 'watch and learn' type of game. Passing on a matchup that appears to offer little value on either the side or total is always an option, as well.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
Alabama: 1st time as regular-season underdog since 2015 (+1 at Georgia; won 38-10); before that, Alabama had not been a regular-season underdog since 2008 at No. 3 Georgia (+6.5, won 41-30); won three straight regular-season games as an underdog
Alabama has been favored in 113 consecutive home games (last time as home underdog: 2007 vs No. 3 LSU -- lost by seven as 7-point underdogs)
Georgia: will be 47th consecutive game as favorite (last time as underdog: 2021 vs No. 3 Clemson -- won 10-3 as 2.5-point underdogs)
Georgia: 10-4 ATS against top-five teams over the past 10 years; best in FBS (min. 10 games)
4th game over past 10 seasons where a top-five team is a home underdog (such teams are 2-1 ATS in previous three)