The props were poppin' last week! Daniel bounced back in strong fashion, making good on two of his three wagers. Tony Pollard's inefficient day spoiled Dopp's otherwise sterling showing. I believe in my bud and the process and might just buy the dip on Pollard this go-around.
My outing was similarly solid, hitting a parlay inspired by the Falcons' backfield. I wasn't as lucky, however, when backing the Bolts. Justin Herbert hit the over on passing yards, but Ladd McConkey was held out of the end zone. That's what happens when you stack. It was still solid fun, though.
We're cooking up more good times in Week 8. Daniel is highlighting the young, the old and the Detroit Lions (obviously). Meanwhile, I'm leaning into a series of bounce-back bets. -- Liz Loza
All odds as of publication time. For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET.
Quarterback props
Loza: C.J. Stroud OVER 249.5 passing yards (+110)
Stroud has underwhelmed in his second pro campaign, averaging 7.3 yards per attempt since the start of September. Nico Collins' absence hasn't done the Texans' QB any favors, as his completion percentage and YPA have dipped since his No.1 receiver has been sidelined. Stroud's struggles were painfully highlighted via his 86-yard passing effort this past Sunday. But what goes down, must come up. And I'm buying the dip in Week 8.
While Collins is set to miss a third straight contest, the matchup greatly improves for Stroud. The Colts have allowed the seventh-highest completion percentage (68.5%) and the seventh-most passing yards (237 per game). With a spread of five points, Joe Mixon (give me the OVER on 79.5 rushing yards) figures to eat. That doesn't mean, however, that Stroud won't air it out in an attempt to shake off the ick of Week 7 and get right before the back half of the season. At plus odds this shot is long, but I'm putting feelings over facts and reaching for a (at least temporary) rebound.
Running back props
Loza: Tony Pollard 60-plus rushing yards (+110)
Pollard underwhelmed against a generous Buffalo Bills' run defense in Week 7. He still, however, cleared the above line, managing 61 rushing yards on 16 carries. In fact, the former Cowboy has gone over 60 rushing yards in five of six contests thus far into 2024. He draws a tough matchup at Detroit this go-around, however volume figures to lean in his favor as the Tennessee Titans attempt to play keep away from a potent Lions offense. Detroit has allowed over 4.6 yards per carry to opposing rushers. Were Pollard to record 16 attempts (his average, regardless of game flow) at 4.0 yards per carry, he'd exceed 60 rushing yards. I'll bank on a more efficient showing in Week 8.
Wide receiver prop
Loza: DeVonta Smith OVER 59.5 receiving yards (+110).
Smith is coming off of a career-worst showing in which he reeled in a single grab for negative 2 yards. That's not going to happen again. Not while Jalen Hurts attempts to keep pace with the Bengals high-powered passing attack by exploiting Cincinnati's fantastically susceptible secondary. The Bengals' defense has statistically stiffened over the past month, but the team has faced some of the league's most listless offenses (the Carolina Panthers, the New York Giants, and the Cleveland Browns). Even so, Cincy's secondary has given up a generous 10 yards per reception and an average of 143 yards per game to opposing wide receivers.
Meanwhile, Smith has managed 60-plus receiving yards in 10 of his past regular-season outings (dating to the team's Week 9 bye in 2023). With Dallas Goedert (hamstring) sidelined for another outing and in a game with a projected point total of 47.5, Smith should be targeted early and often. He figures to haul in at least five grabs for upward of 65 receiving yards.
Dopp: Brian Thomas Jr. OVER 59.5 receiving yards.
One of the best stories this season has been the emergence of Brian Thomas Jr. in the Jacksonville Jaguars' offense. He's sixth in receiving yards and tied for seventh in receiving touchdowns. The dude is a big play waiting to happen. He has five receptions of at least 25 yards and will look to build on that this week against the Green Bay Packers, especially since this secondary has given up 11 receptions of at least 25 yards this year. Those chunk plays go a long way into hitting this receiving line. This game currently has the second highest total of the week at ESPN BET and the Packers are heavy favorites to win, which means the script is primed for a lot of passing from the Jags. Thomas has topped 86 receiving yards in three of his past four games, easily surpassing this line. I'm expecting another big day for the 6-foot-2 rookie who many overlooked coming into the season, choosing to focus on Marvin Harrison Jr, Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze. BTJ has shown multiple times what he brings to the table and I'm all in on him this week, which is why I'm taking him to top 59.5 receiving yards against the Packers.
Dopp: Davante Adams OVER 59.5 receiving yards.
This one is a little more anecdotal and a little less analytical. In his first game back with Aaron Rodgers, Adams saw nine targets. That's a big number for someone's first game in a new offense, but it highlights the trust and chemistry that Rodgers and Adams continue to share. On top of that, Adams played an incredible 96% of snaps, an outrageous number for a player on a new team. If Week 1 gave us nine targets, this second week could easily push into the double digits against a Patriots team that's allowing the ninth-most passing yards per game. New England has let eight different pass catchers hit this line, with another two WRs falling just yards short of this number. Rodgers needs to get this offense on track if the Jets want to stay in the playoff hunt and bringing over his best friend is one way to make that happen. Call it a gut feeling, a hunch, or intuition, call it whatever you want, but history tells us not to doubt the Rodgers-Adams connection and I still think there's something left in this duo's gas tank. One last note, Adams has 55 games with Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback where's he has reached at least 60 receiving yards. Pretty soon, that'll be 56 games. Don't let this be the bet where you look back after the game and say, "ugh, that was so obvious! why didn't I take it?"