Saturday brings us another huge matchup when the No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions (7-0, 4-0 in conference) host the No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes (6-1, 3-1) in a matchup of Big Ten powerhouses.
Ohio State (+425) is the second choice to win the national championship at ESPN BET, trailing only the Georgia Bulldogs (+360). The Buckeyes are one spot ahead of Oregon (+475), despite losing to the No. 1 Ducks just two weeks ago. Penn State is 14-1 to win it all.
At -900 and -600, respectively, Ohio State and Penn State are heavy favorites to reach the 12-team College Football Playoff.
The Buckeyes head into Beaver Stadium as a field goal favorite over the Nittany Lions. Kickoff is at noon ET Saturday on FOX.
Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
The lines
Spread: Ohio State -3.5
Money line: Ohio State -165, Penn State +140
Over/under: 45.5 (Over -105/Under -115)
First-half spread: Ohio State -2.5 (-110), Penn State +2.5 (-110)
First-half money line: Ohio State -155, Penn State +130
First-half total points: 21.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
Maldonado's pick: No. 4 Ohio State at No. 3 Penn State UNDER 47 points
Both teams in this matchup are facing challenges on offense while flaunting strength on the other side of the ball. Ohio State's offensive struggles have been a major talking point leading up to this matchup. Each side is equipped with a solid defense, ready to parry and absorb blows rather than going for the knockout.
The Buckeyes, typically the power puncher, find themselves with a weakened stance due to injuries on the offensive line. Left tackle Josh Simmons suffered a season-ending injury in the loss to Oregon, prompting a reshuffling that saw Zen Michalski step into Simmons' spot, only to be sidelined by an injury himself late against Nebraska last Saturday. Against a formidable Penn State pass rush ranked 15th by PFF with an impressive 123 total pressures (despite only 14 sacks), Ohio State's protection issues could severely hamper its offensive output if the Nittany Lions can consistently disrupt the pocket and force QB Will Howard into uncomfortable situations.
The Buckeyes' ground game, typically a strength, has also had its issues. In its narrow win over Nebraska, Ohio State managed a mere 64 rushing yards. Star running backs Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson were limited to just 29 and 25 yards, respectively, on 10 carries each. This uncharacteristic ineffectiveness in the run game could force Ohio State into a more one-dimensional offense, playing right into the hands of Penn State's stout defense.
Meanwhile, Penn State is eyeing the fight with caution and could be without starting quarterback Drew Allar, forcing the Nittany Lions to keep their jabs short and close to the vest and potentially thrusting backup signal-caller Beau Pribula into the spotlight. Pribula's limited experience as a starter could be a significant liability against Ohio State's sophisticated defense. In his previous outing, Pribula relied heavily on a short passing game, with 10 of his 13 attempts traveling within nine yards of the line of scrimmage. While this quick-release strategy could help negate Ohio State's pass rush, it's unlikely to produce the big plays needed to push the total over the number at ESPN BET.
Ohio State's recent tendency to dial up pressure adds another layer of complexity. The Buckeyes blitzed on 34.2% of Nebraska's dropbacks, an approach that could prove challenging for an inexperienced Penn State QB. While this aggressive tactic might create opportunities for big plays if Pribula is able to evade the pressure, it's more likely to result in hurried throws and potential turnovers.
This won't be a flurry of punches traded back and forth. Instead, it's likely to be a careful, methodical exchange where each team looks to wear down the other, putting points at a premium.
Ohio State's offensive line struggles and recent rushing woes, coupled with Penn State's potential quarterback situation and the Buckeyes' increased blitz frequency, all point toward a low-scoring affair. Just like a fight that ends in a close decision, this game looks set to stay under the total, as a battle of discipline, patience and defense above all. The number opened at 47.5, but has since dipped to 45.5.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
Penn State is 7-3 ATS vs. Ohio State under James Franklin (1-9 SU).
Penn State has failed to cover in its last six games as an underdog or 7 or fewer points, the longest active streak in FBS.
Ohio State is 3-11 ATS vs. ranked teams since 2021, the second-worst mark in FBS behind Stanford's 3-15-1 (min. 10 games).
Ohio State has failed to cover in consecutive games; a third straight would tie its longest ATS losing streak over the past three seasons.
This is the 13th time over the past 20 seasons that Ohio State is favored against an AP top-5 team (2-10 ATS in previous games); only Alabama has more such games (12-15 ATS).
This is the third instance this season of a top-5 team being a home underdog (both covered); over the past five years, AP top-5 teams as home 'dogs are 3-0 ATS (all won outright, including Oregon vs. Ohio State earlier this season).
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