We feasted on Thanksgiving and then got roasted on Sunday. Regardless, we're coming back to the table in Week 14. Daniel Dopp is keying in on Jacksonville at Tennessee. I'm looking for opportunity across the slate.
Let's dig in and start the popping! -- Liz Loza
All odds as of publication time. For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET.
Quarterback props
Will Levis OVER 1.5 passing TDs (+145)
Dopp: Levis has been on a mini hot streak recently. He's thrown for two touchdowns in three of his last four games and appears to be trending up as a passer. His yardage over that four-game span has been all over the place, from 175 to 295 yards, which is why I'm not looking at a yardage prop here.
Levis has calmed down with the turnovers that plagued him earlier in the season, only throwing two picks over the past four games. Not only that, but the Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday's opponent, have only five interceptions the entire season! Most importantly though, the Jaguars have given up 24 passing touchdowns, the second most in the entire NFL this season. This matchup is primed for Levis to continue his progression of not just taking care of the ball, but also finding the end zone.
The sportsbooks obviously don't share the same optimism that I do, with this prop coming in at +145, but I'm fully buying the recent hot streak paired with a weak Jaguars passing defense. I'd be tempted to pair this with an anytime touchdown prop for either Calvin Ridley or Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, just to give it a little more juice, but for the sake of this column, I'll keep it about Levis to up the chances that this hits.
Joe Burrow OVER 291.5 passing + rushing yards (-118)
Loza: It's looking like a lost season for the Cincinnati Bengals, but that hasn't stopped Burrow from chucking the ball with delicious abandon. With both Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins healthy, and while trying to make up for a wildly generous defense, Burrow has cleared 300 passing yards in three straight efforts. He has additionally scampered for 48 rushing yards during that span.
Burrow will face a frisky Dallas Cowboys squad on Monday night. The Cowboys have allowed the most rushing yards to opposing QBs. With Micah Parsons back to health and bringing the heat, Burrow figures to utilize his legs to extend plays. With a projected point total of 49.5 there figures to be enough back-and-forth to get Joe Cool to 300 total yards.
Running back props
Saquon Barkley OVER 131.5 rushing + receiving yards (-118)
Dopp: I don't think there's a better running back in the NFL than Barkley right now. I also don't think there's a worse rush defense in the NFL right now than the Carolina Panthers, which means this is a prop made in heaven. Carolina has given up over 2,000 yards on the ground this season, the most in the NFL. Barkley has topped this line six times, with another four performances hitting at least 111 total yards from scrimmage. He has eight games over 100 rushing yards alone in 2024, and two of his last three games has posted 198 and 302 yards, respectively, from scrimmage. He's somehow getting better as the season goes on.
Bucky Irving just torched this defense for 185 total yards, and with the utmost respect for Irving, he's not even close to the running back Barkley is. This is an absolutely smash spot for the Philadelphia Eagles running game. My biggest fear is that Philly gets up early and Barkley ends up sitting a good portion of this game, but if that turns out to be the case, I'd imagine Barkley would be a big part in making that happen. Whenever the best RB in the NFL goes up against the worst run defense in the NFL, you have to find a way to be active on that game, and I'm all-in on Barkley hitting the over on this prop.
Aaron Jones OVER 2.5 receptions (-135)
Loza: The Atlanta Falcons defensive front was finally able to generate pressure in Week 13, sacking Justin Herbert four times. If that trend sticks, Sam Darnold might need to reach for a short-yardage outlet on more than a few occasions. Additionally, CB Mike Hughes is expected to return, giving Atlanta's secondary a much-needed boost. All of that aligns nicely for Jones, who is averaging three catches per game (RB11) and has collected a total of six grabs over his last pair of outings. Much has been made of Jones' struggles as a rusher (and Cam Akers' poaching presence), but the vet's work as a pass-catcher remains uncontested.
Wide receiver props
Calvin Ridley longest reception OVER 26.5 yards (-110)
Dopp: Ridley and the rest of the Tennessee Titans receiving corps is in a good spot against the Jaguars. Normally I'd look at a receiving yardage total, but I just couldn't say no to this longest reception prop. First off, it might seem like 26.5 receiving yards is a lot for a single reception and, to be honest, it kind of is. But that's not scaring me away.
Ridley has six receptions over 26.5 yards so far this season. Sure, I'd love if that could be a little higher, but I know Ridley's talent, and five of those six deep connections have come in the last seven games (he had catches of 21 and 25 yards in the two games he came up short of this number).
However, this Jaguars team is giving up yardage like it's going out of style. They've allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to WRs this season, and most importantly, they've allowed 17 receptions of at least 27 yards or more, the fifth-most in the NFL. Couple that with the fact that Levis has 10 completions of at least 27 yards over the last four games and you'll see why I'm interested in this prop. Sure, you could also go for NWI's longest reception over 18.5 yards, but I feel like this is a Ridley spot. The game itself may not be the most fun to watch, but there should definitely be some big plays in this one. Give me the over.
Jakobi Meyers OVER 59.5 receiving yards (-135), Tre Tucker longest reception OVER 16.5 yards (-105)
Loza: I'm creating a parlay here due to Meyers' potential ankle issue. Assuming he goes (Antonio Pierce seemed to indicate that the 28-year-old wideout would get the green light after practicing on a limited basis Friday), Meyers' figures to top 60 receiving yards in a plus matchup at Tampa Bay. The veteran receiver has averaged over 80 receiving yards per game since Davante Adams was traded to the New York Jets and has topped 90 receiving yards in back-to-back efforts. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have allowed the third-most receiving yards (3,325) on the season, including 298 to the Panthers in Week 13.
Tampa Bay has additionally allowed the eighth-most grabs of over 20 yards (39) thus far in 2024. That works out nicely for Tucker, who has hauled in a pass of 20 or more yards in three straight games. Interestingly, Tucker has averaged 17.5 yards per reception over his last pair of games. As 6.5-point road underdogs, the Las Vegas pass catchers figure to stay busy.