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          Betting tips for 'Thursday Night Football': Rams at 49ers

          Will the 49ers defense be able to slow down the Rams' Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp? Photo by Harry How/Getty Images
          • ESPN
          Dec 12, 2024, 10:13 AM ET

          Week 15 of the NFL season gets underway with a matchup between NFC West rivals on "Thursday Night Football."

          The 7-6 Los Angeles Rams (+175 to win the division, +155 to make the playoffs) will visit the 6-7 San Francisco 49ers (18-1, 8-1), with both teams trying to chase down the first-place Seattle Seahawks, who sit at 8-5. In Week 3, the Rams rallied from a double-digit deficit to stun the 49ers, 27-24.

          The Rams have won two straight and are coming off a wild 44-42 victory over the Buffalo Bills in Week 14. The injury-riddled 49ers had dropped three in a row before dismantling the Chicago Bears 38-13 last week.

          Action from Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara gets going at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video.

          Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET

          Game lines

          Spread: 49ers -3 (Opened 49ers -2.5)
          Moneyline: 49ers -145, Rams +125
          Over/Under: 49.5 (Opened 48.5)

          First-half spread: 49ers -1.5 (-105), Rams +1.5 (-115)
          49ers total points: 25.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
          Rams total points: 23.5 (Over -105/Under -125)

          Matchup predictor (according to ESPN Analytics): 49ers 60.8% chance to win

          The props

          Passing

          Matthew Stafford total passing yards: 249.5 (Over +100/Under -130)
          Stafford total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
          Brock Purdy total passing yards: 249.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
          Purdy total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over -155/Under +120)

          Rushing

          Kyren Williams total rushing yards: 70+ (Over -135)
          Brock Purdy total rushing yards: 20+ (Over -130)

          Receiving

          Puka Nacua total receiving yards: 89.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
          Cooper Kupp total receiving yards: 69.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
          Jauan Jennings total receiving yards: 69.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
          George Kittle total receiving yards: 59.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
          Deebo Samuel Sr. total receiving yards: 49.5 (Over -110/Under -115)

          Joe Fortenbaugh's pick

          Brock Purdy UNDER 20.5 rushing yards

          This number is a bit on the high side, thanks in part to Purdy's season-high 10 rushing attempts against the Rams back in Week 3, which resulted in 41 rushing yards. So why are we considering the under here? Easy. The status of stalwart left tackle Trent Williams, who has missed each of the last three games due to an ankle injury. Here's how Purdy has performed this season with and without Trent Williams on the field:

          With Williams: 5.1 rushing attempts, 26.7 rushing yards per game.
          Without Williams: 3.5 rushing attempts, 7.5 rushing yards per game.

          Purdy has eclipsed this mark just once in his last four starts, as he has throttled down the rushing attempts late in the season. With Williams officially inactive for this matchup, let's fire on the under.

          Betting trends

          Courtesy ESPN Research

          • The Rams are 6-7 against the spread; the 49ers are 5-8 ATS.

          • The Rams are 0-3 ATS as a road underdog this season (4-11-1 ATS last three seasons). However, they have won and covered three straight road games overall.

          • The 49ers are 1-7 ATS against teams with winning records this season (0-5 ATS last five).

          • The Rams are 13-4-1 ATS on short rest under Sean McVay, including 8-1 ATS since 2021 and 4-0 ATS since the start of last season.

          • The Rams are 27-13 ATS in December or later under McVay.

          • Four straight Rams-49ers meetings have gone over the total. The Rams have covered three straight meetings, although Kyle Shanahan is 10-6 ATS against McVay including the playoffs.

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